Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26151751›Full record

ArticlePloS one2015

Aspirin for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer. A Benefit and Harm Analysis.

Inge Stegeman, Patrick M Bossuyt, Tsung Yu, Cynthia Boyd, Milo A Puhan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Old drugs, new challenges: reassigning drugs for cancer therapies.Cellular & molecular biology letters · 2025
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  12. Impact of Transfusion on Cancer Growth and Outcome.Cancer growth and metastasis · 2016
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Inge StegemanClinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Patrick M BossuytClinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Tsung YuDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Cynthia BoydSchool of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Milo A PuhanDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America; Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Funding

Treatment Burden in Older Adults with Diabetes and MultimorbidityK23AG032910 · NIA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI BOYD, CYNTHIA MELINDA · 2009 to 2013
$533k
NIA NIH HHS 1K23AG032910NIA NIH HHS K23 AG032910
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAspirin is widely used for prevention of cardiovascular disease. In recent years randomized trials also suggested a preventive effect for various types of cancer. We aimed to assess, in a quantitative way, benefits and harms of aspirin for primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease and cancer for a general US population between 40 and 85 years of age.

methodsWe used the Gail/National Cancer Institute approach for assessing benefits and harms. This approach provides a probability that a treatment is more beneficial than harmful and incorporates multiple outcomes, the importance of these outcomes, considers different outcome risks and treats mortality as a competing risk. Our main outcomes were the risks of seven types of cancer, myocardial infarction, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding. We obtained effect estimates from recent meta-analyses of randomized trials and used baseline risks from the Centers for Disease Control. We conducted four sensitivity analyses to assess the influence of different assumptions about outcome risks and preferences and considered the sampling variation of the effect estimates for aspirin.

resultsThe main analysis as well as the sensitivity analyses showed that aspirin has more benefits than harms. In the main analysis, the index (positive if number of prevented events > excess number of harm events over 10 years per 1,000 persons) ranged from 2 (95% CI 0.0 to 11.8; in women age 45 to 54 years) to 8 (95% CI -0.1 to 83.7; in men age 65 to 74 years). In the sensitivity analyses, the index was also positive for all age categories suggesting more benefits than harms.

conclusionThis study suggests an overall benefit of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer based on population-based data. For individual preventive counseling, additional benefit harm analyses should explore which individuals should or should not take aspirin based on their risk profile for cardiovascular, cancer and gastrointestinal outcomes and based on their outcome preferences. Thereby, risk-stratified and preference-sensitive prevention could become a reality.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAspirinCardiovascular DiseasesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasmsPrimary PreventionRisk AssessmentAspirin

Identifiers

PMID26151751
PMCPMC4494891

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.