Trial reportProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015
Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households.
Trial report in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Role-specific household contact patterns in urban and rural China: Implications for influenza household transmission.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Environmental temperature and relative humidity shape post-emission aerosol fate and airborne influenza transmission.Journal of virology · 2026Article
- Article
- Estimating the generation time for influenza transmission using household data in the United States.Epidemics · 2025Article
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Influenza virus shedding and symptoms: Dynamics and implications from a multiseason household transmission study.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Estimating the generation time for influenza transmission using household data in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Environmental factors related to differences in the microbiota in the upper respiratory tract in young children: Focusing on the impact of early nursery attendance.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2023Article
- The Oregon Child Absenteeism Due to Respiratory Disease Study (ORCHARDS): Rationale, objectives, and design.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2022Article
- "We didn't get much schooling because we were fishing all the time": Potential impacts of irregular school attendance on the spread of epidemics.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2022Article
- Household transmission of influenza A and B within a prospective cohort during the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons.Statistics in medicine · 2021Article
- Transmissibility and transmission of respiratory viruses.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2021Review
- Expiratory aerosol particle escape from surgical masks due to imperfect sealing.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Estimating and interpreting secondary attack risk: Binomial considered biased.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Household studies provide key insights on the transmission of, and susceptibility to, SARS-CoV-2.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Efficacy of masks and face coverings in controlling outward aerosol particle emission from expiratory activities.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Common cold in Team Finland during 2018 Winter Olympic Games (PyeongChang): epidemiology, diagnosis including molecular point-of-care testing (POCT) and treatment.British journal of sports medicine · 2019Observational
- Assessing Zika Virus Transmission Within Households During an Outbreak in Martinique, 2015-2016.American journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.Epidemics · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Household-based interventions are the mainstay of public health policy against epidemic respiratory pathogens when vaccination is not available. Although the efficacy of these interventions has traditionally been measured by their ability to reduce the proportion of household contacts who exhibit symptoms [household secondary attack rate (hSAR)], this metric is difficult to interpret and makes only partial use of data collected by modern field studies. Here, we use Bayesian transmission model inference to analyze jointly both symptom reporting and viral shedding data from a three-armed study of influenza interventions. The reduction in hazard of infection in the increased hand hygiene intervention arm was 37.0% [8.3%, 57.8%], whereas the equivalent reduction in the other intervention arm was 27.2% [-0.46%, 52.3%] (increased hand hygiene and face masks). By imputing the presence and timing of unobserved infection, we estimated that only 61.7% [43.1%, 76.9%] of infections met the case criteria and were thus detected by the study design. An assessment of interventions using inferred infections produced more intuitively consistent attack rates when households were stratified by the speed of intervention, compared with the crude hSAR. Compared with adults, children were 2.29 [1.66, 3.23] times as infectious and 3.36 [2.31, 4.82] times as susceptible. The mean generation time was 3.39 d [3.06, 3.70]. Laboratory confirmation of infections by RT-PCR was only able to detect 79.6% [76.5%, 83.0%] of symptomatic infections, even at the peak of shedding. Our results highlight the potential use of robust inference with well-designed mechanistic transmission models to improve the design of intervention studies.
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