ArticlePloS one2015
Trends in AIDS Deaths, New Infections and ART Coverage in the Top 30 Countries with the Highest AIDS Mortality Burden; 1990-2013.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 82 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
82 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 170 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cause of Death and Risk of Death for People Living With HIV Admitted to Hospital: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Pooled it
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- Prevalence of delayed antiretroviral therapy initiation among people living with HIV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2023Pooled it
- HIV-1 subtype C predicted co-receptor tropism in Africa: an individual sequence level meta-analysis.AIDS research and therapy · 2020Pooled it
- Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among HIV-positive and HIV-negative populations in sub-Saharan Africa-a systematic review and meta-analysis.Systematic reviews · 2019Pooled it
- Cancer risk factors among people living with HIV/AIDS in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2017Pooled it
- A Booklet Self-Help Intervention for People Living with HIV and Depressive Symptoms in Botswana: A Randomized Controlled Trial.AIDS and behavior · 2025Trial
- Computer-Based Counseling Program (CARE+ Kenya) to Promote Prevention and HIV Health for People Living With HIV/AIDS: A Randomized Controlled Trial.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2019Trial
- Economic evaluation of weekends-off antiretroviral therapy for young people in 11 countries.Medicine · 2018Trial
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- A universal testing and treatment intervention to improve HIV control: One-year results from intervention communities in Zambia in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial.PLoS medicine · 2017Trial
- Raltegravir in second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings (SELECT): a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority study.The lancet. HIV · 2016Trial
- Trends in all-cause mortality after cancer diagnosis among people with and without HIV in Botswana, 1990-2021.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2026Article
- Renal function during tenofovir‑based antiretroviral therapy among people living with HIV in Lilongwe, Malawi: findings from the prospective LighTen cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Evaluation of Cardiac Findings in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.Anatolian journal of cardiology · 2025Article
- Investigating the Risk Factors in Progression of HIV Disease Using an Illness-Death Multistate Model.Journal of research in health sciences · 2025Article
- Trends in Mortality Among People With HIV in Mexico: Analysis of National Death Registries (1998-2022).Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Bypassing primary antiretroviral therapy centres in Sub-Saharan Africa: An integrative review of the theoretical and empirical literature.Journal of virus eradication · 2024Review
- Costs and cost drivers of comprehensive sexual reproductive health services to female sex workers in Kenya.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Factors associated with ART interruption during the COVID-19 crisis in Burundi (the EPIC community-based research program).Scientific reports · 2024Article
22 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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7 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
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Abstract
backgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) prevents human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression, mortality and transmission. We assess the impact of expanded HIV treatment for the prevention of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths and simulate four treatment scenarios for Nigeria and South Africa.
methodsFor 1990-2013, we used the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) database to examine trends in AIDS deaths, HIV incidence and prevalence, ART coverage, annual AIDS death rate, AIDS death-to-treatment and HIV infections to treatment ratios for the top 30 countries with the highest AIDS mortality burden and compare them with data from high-income countries. We projected the 1990-2020 AIDS deaths for Nigeria and South Africa using four treatment scenarios: 1) no ART; 2) maintaining current ART coverage; 3) 90% ART coverage based on 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) ART guidelines by 2020; and 4) reaching the United Nations 90-90-90 Target by 2020.
findingsIn 2013, there were 1.3 million (1.1 million-1.6 million) AIDS deaths in the top 30 countries representing 87% of global AIDS deaths. Eight countries accounted for 58% of the global AIDS deaths; Nigeria and South Africa accounted for 27% of global AIDS deaths. The highest death rates per 1000 people living with HIV were in Central African Republic (91), South Sudan (82), Côte d'Ivoire (75), Cameroon (72) and Chad (71), nearly 8-10 times higher than the high-income countries. ART access in 2013 has averted as estimated 1,051,354 and 422,448 deaths in South Africa and Nigeria, respectively. Increasing ART coverage in these two countries to meet the proposed UN 90-90-90 Target by 2020 could avert 2.2 and 1.2 million deaths, respectively.
interpretationOver the past decade the expansion of access to ART averted millions of deaths. Reaching the proposed UN 90-90-90 Target by 2020 will prevent additional morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Despite progress, high-burden countries will need to accelerate access to ART treatment to avert millions of premature AIDS deaths and new HIV infections.
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