ArticlePloS one2015
Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictors and consequences of diet composition in a declining generalist aerial insectivore.Oecologia · 2026Article
- Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Barn swallows and purple martins convert precursors to long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids: implications for conservation of riparian- vs inland-nesting habitats.Conservation physiology · 2025Article
- Agricultural pesticides and ectoparasites: potential combined effects on the physiology of a declining aerial insectivore.Conservation physiology · 2021Article
- Shifting trends: Detecting changes in cetacean population dynamics in shifting habitat.PloS one · 2021Article
- Nutritional consequences of breeding away from riparian habitats in Bank Swallows: new evidence from multiple endogenous markers.Conservation physiology · 2021Article
- DNA diet profiles with high-resolution animal tracking data reveal levels of prey selection relative to habitat choice in a crepuscular insectivorous bird.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Mercury exposure to swallows breeding in Canada inferred from feathers grown on breeding and non-breeding grounds.Ecotoxicology (London, England) · 2020Article
- Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground.Oecologia · 2020Article
- A spatially varying change points model for monitoring glaucoma progression using visual field data.Spatial statistics · 2019Article
- Rainy springs linked to poor nestling growth in a declining avian aerial insectivore ( Tachycineta bicolor).Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Article
- How essential fats affect bird performance and link aquatic ecosystems and terrestrial consumers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.
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