ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015
Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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25 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- Leveraging spatial structure to design spatially-targeted malaria interventions at the community-scale.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
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- Assessing the impact of climate and control interventions on spatio-temporal malaria dynamics using a stochastic metapopulation model.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Article
- Inference and dynamic simulation of malaria using a simple climate-driven entomological model of malaria transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- A framework for evaluating the effects of observational type and quality on vector-borne disease forecast.Epidemics · 2020Article
- A Dynamical and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Modelling of Malaria Incidence in Limpopo Province, South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Article
- Modeling and inference for infectious disease dynamics: a likelihood-based approach.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2018Article
- Exploring the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Using a Dynamic Mosquito-Human Malaria Model.The open infectious diseases journal · 2018Article
- A second-order iterated smoothing algorithm.Statistics and computing · 2017Article
- Malaria Transmission and Prospects for Malaria Eradication: The Role of the Environment.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2017Review
- Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations.Malaria journal · 2017Article
- Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.Malaria journal · 2017Article
- Article
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8 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human-mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity.
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