ArticleElectronic physician
Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model.
Article in Electronic physician. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Phenomenology of being a safe taxi driver.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Analysis and Modeling of Threatening Factors of Workforce's Health in Large-Scale Workplaces: Comparison of Four-Fitting Methods to select optimum technique.Electronic physician · 2016Article
- Use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the Analysis and Modeling of Factors That Affect Occupational Injuries in Large Construction Industries.Electronic physician · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOne of the significant dangers that threaten people's lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model.
methodsThe study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012.
resultsThe results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months.
conclusionThe number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year.
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