ArticlePloS one2015
Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
55 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Genetic diversity, population structure, and drug resistance of Plasmodium falciparum in Kenya: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Malaria journal · 2025Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.The Lancet. Global health · 2019Pooled it
- Gender-related factors affecting community malaria-related perceptions and practices in Migori County, Kenya.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Changing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in two villages of northeastern Tanzania between 2003 and 2021 in relation to vectors, interventions and climatic factors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Malaria survey data and geospatial suitability mapping for understanding spatial and temporal variations of risk across Kenya.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2025Article
- Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Potential relationship between gut microbiota and animal diarrhea: a systematic review.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Review
- Impact of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment for Malaria in Pregnancy on Hospital Birth Outcomes on the Kenyan Coast.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Exposure to common infections may shape basal immunity and potentially HIV-1 acquisition amongst a high-risk population in Coastal Kenya.Frontiers in immunology · 2023Article
- Malaria attributable fractions with changing transmission intensity: Bayesian latent class vs logistic models.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Qualitative study on the use and maintenance of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in Bouaké (Côte d'Ivoire), 17 months after the last mass distribution campaign.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Assessment of knowledge of malaria and its control practices in mining and sugarcane growing regions of Western Kenya highlands.African health sciences · 2022Article
- Neurological impairment and disability in children in rural Kenya.Developmental medicine and child neurology · 2022Article
- The burden of neurological impairments and disability in older children measured in disability-adjusted life-years in rural Kenya.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Genetic markers associated with insecticide resistance and resting behaviour in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes in selected sites in Kenya.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- The impact of child health interventions and risk factors on child survival in Kenya, 1993-2014: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactual scenarios.BMC medicine · 2021Article
- Subnational estimates of factors associated with under-five mortality in Kenya: a spatio-temporal analysis, 1993-2014.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Endemic chikungunya fever in Kenyan children: a prospective cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- 10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity.Wellcome open research · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundProgress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.
methods1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use.
resultsP. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991-92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast.
conclusionsProgress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission.
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