Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26102448›Full record

ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2015

A Data-Driven Simulation of HIV Spread Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men: Role of Age and Race Mixing and STIs.

Ekkehard C Beck, Michelle Birkett, Benjamin Armbruster, Brian Mustanski

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025
    Pooled it
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  3. Feasibility of the Adapted MyPEEPS Mobile App for HIV Prevention in Young Transgender Men.AIDS education and prevention : official publication of the International Society for AIDS Education · 2025
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  14. A Qualitative Study to Inform Adaptation of MyPEEPS Mobile for Transmasculine Youth.Journal of health care for the poor and underserved · 2022
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  15. The Value and Challenge of Frequent Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Testing Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ekkehard C Beck*Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering, Evanston, IL; and †Department of Medical Social Sciences, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL.
Michelle Birkett
Benjamin Armbruster
Brian Mustanski

Funding

INNOVATIVE IMPLEMENTATION RESEARCH METHODS COREP30DA027828 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI BROWN, C. HENDRICKS · 2011 to 2020
$11.4M
Syndemic Development and HIV Risk Among Vulnerable Young MenR01DA025548 · NIDA · LURIE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL OF CHICAGO · PI GAROFALO, ROBERT, MUSTANSKI, BRIAN · 2009 to 2013
$3.5M
A Multilevel Network Model of Drug Use and HIV Racial Disparities in MenK08DA037825 · NIDA · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI BIRKETT, MICHELLE · 2015 to 2019
$846k
The Development and Analysis of a Macro-Network of Vulnerable Young MenR03DA033906 · NIDA · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI BIRKETT, MICHELLE · 2012 to 2013
$303k
NIDA NIH HHS K08 DA037825NIDA NIH HHS K08DA037825NIDA NIH HHS P30 DA027828NIDA NIH HHS P30DA027828NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA025548NIDA NIH HHS R01DA025548NIDA NIH HHS R01DA025548-02S1NIDA NIH HHS R03 DA033906NIDA NIH HHS R03DA033906
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveYoung men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States have a high HIV incidence with substantial racial disparities that are poorly understood. We use a data-driven simulation model to understand the impact of network-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections on the spread of HIV among YMSM.

methodsWe designed and parameterized a stochastic agent-based network simulation model using results of a longitudinal cohort study of YMSM in Chicago. Within this model, YMSM formed and dissolved partnerships over time, and partnership types were stratified by length of partnership, sex, and age of the partner. In each partnership, HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia could be transmitted. Counterfactual scenarios were run to examine drivers of HIV.

resultsOver a 15-year simulation, the HIV epidemic among YMSM continued to rise, with Latino/white YMSM facing a steeper increase in the HIV burden compared with black YMSM. YMSM in partnerships with older MSM, in particular black YMSM with older black MSM, were at highest risk for HIV, and 1 infection prevented with an older partner would prevent 0.8 additional infections among YMSM. Additionally, racial disparities in HIV were driven by differences in the HIV prevalence of YMSM partners. Finally, of all HIV infections among YMSM, 14.6% were attributable to NG and CT infections.

conclusionNetwork-level mechanisms and sexually transmitted infections play a significant role in the spread of HIV and in racial disparities among YMSM. HIV prevention efforts should target YMSM across race, and interventions focusing on YMSM partnerships with older MSM might be highly effective.

Indexed as

AgingComputer SimulationHomosexuality, MaleModels, BiologicalRacial GroupsHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceSexual PartnersTime FactorsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID26102448
PMCPMC4573360

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.