ArticleMalaria journal2015
Forecasting malaria in a highly endemic country using environmental and clinical predictors.
Article in Malaria journal, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- The associations between malaria, interventions, and the environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Malaria journal · 2018Pooled it
- Forecasting Malaria in Indian States: A Time Series Approach with R Shiny Integration.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Advancing Early Warning Systems for Malaria: Progress, challenges, and future directions - A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Impact of Climate Variability and Interventions on Malaria Incidence and Forecasting in Burkina Faso.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Exploring malaria prediction models in Togo: a time series forecasting by health district and target group.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Article
- Associations between environmental covariates and temporal changes in malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Assessment of Malaria Predisposing Factors among Crop Production Farmers Attending the Ndop District Hospital, Northwest Region of Cameroon.Journal of parasitology research · 2020Article
- A genetic algorithm for identifying spatially-varying environmental drivers in a malaria time series model.Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news · 2019Article
- A Dynamical and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Modelling of Malaria Incidence in Limpopo Province, South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Vulnerability of farming communities to malaria in the Bole district, Ghana.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2018Article
- Using remote sensing environmental data to forecast malaria incidence at a rural district hospital in Western Kenya.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Towards malaria control and elimination in Ghana: challenges and decision making tools to guide planning.Global health action · 2017Article
- A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana.Malaria research and treatment · 2017Article
- Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall.Global health action · 2016Article
- Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.PloS one · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMalaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where local resources are limited. Accurate disease forecasts can provide public and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control that make effective use of limited resources. The objective of this study was to determine the relevance of environmental and clinical predictors of malaria across different settings in Uganda.
methodsForecasting models were based on health facility data collected by the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project and satellite-derived rainfall, temperature, and vegetation estimates from 2006 to 2013. Facility-specific forecasting models of confirmed malaria were developed using multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average models and produced weekly forecast horizons over a 52-week forecasting period.
resultsThe model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecast horizon. Clinical predictors were retained in the models with the highest predictive power for all facility sites. The average error over the 52 forecasting horizons ranged from 26 to 128% whereas the cumulative burden forecast error ranged from 2 to 22%.
conclusionsClinical data, such as drug treatment, could be used to improve the accuracy of malaria predictions in endemic settings when coupled with environmental predictors. Further exploration of malaria forecasting is necessary to improve its accuracy and value in practice, including examining other environmental and intervention predictors, including insecticide-treated nets.
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