Trial reportThe Lancet. Oncology2015
Efficacy of fewer than three doses of an HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine: combined analysis of data from the Costa Rica Vaccine and PATRICIA Trials.
Trial report in The Lancet. Oncology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00128661 (A Double-Blind, Controlled, Randomized, Phase III Study of the Efficacy of an HPV16/18 VLP Vaccine in the Prevention of Advanced Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia), which is not on this map. Cited by 146 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Double-Blind, Controlled, Randomized, Phase III Study of the Efficacy of an HPV16/18 VLP Vaccine in the Prevention of Advanced Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN2, CIN3, Adenocarcinoma In Situ [AIS] and Invasive Cervical Cancer) Associated With HPV 16 or HPV 18 Cervical Infection in Healthy Young Adult Women in Costa Rica.
Who cites it
146 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 299 citations in OpenAlex.
- Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for the prevention of cervical cancer and other HPV-related diseases: a network meta-analysis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Comparative effectiveness and immunogenicity of single-dose and multi-dose human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- The clinical effectiveness of one-dose vaccination with an HPV vaccine: A meta-analysis of 902,368 vaccinated women.PloS one · 2024Pooled it
- Comparison of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine types and dose schedules for prevention of HPV-related disease in females and males.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2019Pooled it
- Disparities and reverse disparities in HPV vaccination: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Preventive medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Comparing one dose of HPV vaccine in girls aged 9-14 years in Tanzania (DoRIS) with one dose in young women aged 15-20 years in Kenya (KEN SHE): an immunobridging analysis of randomised controlled trials.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Trial
- Efficacy of single-dose HPV vaccination among young African women.NEJM evidence · 2022Trial
- Long-term persistence of immune response to the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine in Chinese girls aged 9-17 years: Results from an 8-9-year follow-up phase III open-label study.Asia-Pacific journal of clinical oncology · 2020Trial
- Durability of Cross-Protection by Different Schedules of the Bivalent HPV Vaccine: The CVT Trial.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2020Trial
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- Durability of Protection Afforded by Fewer Doses of the HPV16/18 Vaccine: The CVT Trial.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2018Trial
- Sustained Immunogenicity of 2-dose Human Papillomavirus 16/18 AS04-adjuvanted Vaccine Schedules in Girls Aged 9-14 Years: A Randomized Trial.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Trial
- Randomized Open Trial Comparing 2-Dose Regimens of the Human Papillomavirus 16/18 AS04-Adjuvanted Vaccine in Girls Aged 9-14 Years Versus a 3-Dose Regimen in Women Aged 15-25 Years.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2016Trial
- Clinical research progress and challenges of vaccine for human papillomavirus-associated cancers.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Review
- Validation of TypeSeq2, a Next-Generation-Based Sequencing Assay for the Detection of 46 Human Papillomavirus Genotypes, at the US National Cancer Institute and Costa Rica Laboratories.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Research hotspots and trends in tumor vaccine adjuvants: A bibliometric analysis from 2010 to 2024.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Review
- Prophylactic vaccines against HPV-caused cervical cancer: novel vaccines are still demanded.Infectious agents and cancer · 2025Review
- Systems serology analysis shows IgG1 and IgG3 memory responses six years after one dose of quadrivalent HPV vaccine.Nature communications · 2025Article
- ULACNet-301, OPTIMO protocol: optimizing HPV vaccination regimen for cancer prevention in children and adolescents living with HIV.BMC cancer · 2025Article
86 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
45 authors at 7 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThere is some evidence to suggest that one or two doses of the HPV vaccine provides similar protection to the three-dose regimen. The main aim of the study was to ascertain HPV-16/18 vaccine efficacy in both full and naive cohorts and to explore protection conferred against non-vaccine HPV types, by number of doses received.
methodsSummary data from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT; NCT00128661) and ~the PATRICIA trial (NCT001226810), two phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled clinical trials of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in young women, were combined in a post-hoc analysis (GlaxoSmithKline [GSK] e-track number 202142) to investigate the efficacy of fewer than three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine after 4 years of follow-up. Women were randomly assigned to receive three doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine or to a control vaccine; yet, some received fewer doses. After exclusion of women with less than 12 months of follow-up or those who were HPV-16/18 DNA-positive at enrolment (for the HPV-16/18 endpoint), we calculated vaccine efficacy against one-time detection of incident HPV infections after three, two, and one dose(s). The primary study endpoint was one-time detection of first incident HPV-16/18 infections accumulated during the follow-up phase.
findingsWe assessed vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection in the modified total vaccinated cohort (22 327 received three doses, 1185 two doses, 543 one dose). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infections for three doses was 77·0% (95% CI 74·7-79·1), two doses was 76·0% (62·0-85·3), and one dose was 85·7% (70·7-93·7). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-31/33/45 infections for three doses was 59·7% (56·0-63·0), two doses was 37·7% (12·4-55·9), and one dose was 36·6% (-5·4 to 62·2). Vaccine efficacy against incident HPV-16/18 infection for two-dose women who received their second dose at 1 month was 75·3% (54·2-87·5) and 82·6% (42·3-96·1) for those who received the second dose at 6 months (CVT data only). Vaccine efficacy against HPV-31/33/45 for two-dose women who received their second dose at 6 months (68·1%, 27·0-87·0; CVT data only), but not those receiving it at one month (10·1%, -42·0 to 43·3), was similar to the three-dose group.
interpretation4 years after vaccination of women aged 15-25 years, one and two doses of the HPV-16/18 vaccine seem to protect against cervical HPV-16/18 infections, similar to the protection provided by the three-dose schedule. Two doses separated by 6 months additionally provided some cross-protection. These data argue for a direct assessment of one-dose efficacy of the HPV-16/18 vaccine.
fundingUS National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health Office of Research on Women's Health, and Ministry of Health of Costa Rica (CVT); GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA (PATRICIA).
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.