River temperature drives salmon survivorship: is it determined prior to ocean entry?

Early life is believed to be a critical stage for determining survivorship in all fish. Many studies have suggested that environmental conditions in the ocean determine the fry-to-adult survival rate of Pacific salmon but few investigations have been conducted on the importance of the brief freshwater period during the seaward migration on overall survivorship. Here, we found that most of the variation in survivorship of hatchery-reared chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) was explained by river temperature during the fry stage, despite spending most of their life (approx. 99%) at sea. After the annual release of a constant number of fry, the number of fry moving through the river at a downstream location varied greatly. The number of returning adults was positively correlated with the number of fry moving downstream. This result suggests that most salmon mortality occurred prior to ocean entry, and that short-term mortality in the river is a key factor determining major fluctuations in total mortality. Although marine mortality is often invoked in the literature as a key factor determining total mortality of chum salmon, attention should also be paid to freshwater mortality to understand the population dynamics of this species.