Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26056366›Full record

ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2015

Solutions to Peto's paradox revealed by mathematical modelling and cross-species cancer gene analysis.

Aleah F Caulin, Trevor A Graham, Li-San Wang, Carlo C Maley

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed
5.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed, 98 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  4. Extensive longevity and DNA virus-driven adaptation in nearcticbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Aleah F CaulinGenomics and Computational Biology Graduate Program, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19103, USA aleah.caulin@gmail.com.
Trevor A GrahamEvolution and Cancer Laboratory, Barts Cancer Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
Li-San WangDepartment of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19103, USA.
Carlo C MaleyBiodesign Institute, School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA Center for Evolution and Cancer, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
University of Pennsylvania · USArizona State University · USQueen Mary University of London · GB

Funding

PHYLOGENIES of Barrett's Esophagus LineagesP01CA091955 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI GRADY, WILLIAM MALLORY · 2002 to 2019
$35.9M
Modeling Neoplastic Progression in Barrett's Esophagus - Renewal -2R01CA140657 · NCI · WISTAR INSTITUTE · PI Carlo Maley · 2009 to 2026
$5.0M
Stem Cells, Differentiation and Therapeutic Resistance in AMLR01CA149566 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CARROLL, MARTIN · 2011 to 2015
$3.0M
Application of Evolutionary Principles to Maintain Cancer Control (PQ21)R01CA170595 · NCI · H. LEE MOFFITT CANCER CTR & RES INST · PI GATENBY, ROBERT A · 2012 to 2015
$2.1M
(PQC3) Genomic Diversity and Microenvironment as Drivers of Metastasis in DCISR01CA185138 · NCI · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI HWANG, E.SHELLEY, MALEY, CARLO · 2014 to 2017
$2.0M
NCI NIH HHS BC13205NCI NIH HHS P01 CA091955NCI NIH HHS P01 CA91955NCI NIH HHS R01 CA140657NCI NIH HHS R01 CA170595NCI NIH HHS R01 CA185138
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Whales have 1000-fold more cells than humans and mice have 1000-fold fewer; however, cancer risk across species does not increase with the number of somatic cells and the lifespan of the organism. This observation is known as Peto's paradox. How much would evolution have to change the parameters of somatic evolution in order to equalize the cancer risk between species that differ by orders of magnitude in size? Analysis of previously published models of colorectal cancer suggests that a two- to three-fold decrease in the mutation rate or stem cell division rate is enough to reduce a whale's cancer risk to that of a human. Similarly, the addition of one to two required tumour-suppressor gene mutations would also be sufficient. We surveyed mammalian genomes and did not find a positive correlation of tumour-suppressor genes with increasing body mass and longevity. However, we found evidence of the amplification of TP53 in elephants, MAL in horses and FBXO31 in microbats, which might explain Peto's paradox in those species. Exploring parameters that evolution may have fine-tuned in large, long-lived organisms will help guide future experiments to reveal the underlying biology responsible for Peto's paradox and guide cancer prevention in humans.

Indexed as

Genes, Tumor SuppressorModels, GeneticAnimalsBody SizeEvolution, MolecularGene DosageHumansLongevityMathematical ConceptsMiceMultigene FamilyMutationNeoplasmsRisk FactorsSpecies Specificityalgebraic modelcancerevolutionPeto's paradoxtumour suppressionWright–Fisher model

Identifiers

PMID26056366
PMCPMC4581027
OpenAlexW2118887253

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.