Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26015851›Full record

ArticleStatistics and its interface2015

Estimating the Sizes of Populations At Risk of HIV Infection From Multiple Data Sources Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

Le Bao, Adrian E Raftery, Amala Reddy

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics and its interface, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. An integrated abundance model for estimating county-level prevalence of opioid misuse in Ohio.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2023
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Bayesian Estimation of MSM Population Size in Côte d'Ivoire.Statistics and public policy (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2019
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Le BaoDepartment of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State Univeristy.
Adrian E RafteryDepartments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington.
Amala ReddyUNAIDS Regional Support Team for Asia and the Pacific.

Funding

Statistical Methods for Population ProjectionsR01HD070936 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2012 to 2021
$3.3M
Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemics: Bayesian Prevalence & Size EstimateR01HD054511 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI RAFTERY, ADRIAN E · 2007 to 2016
$3.2M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD054511NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070936
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In most countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is largely concentrated in sub-populations whose behavior puts them at higher risk of contracting and transmitting HIV, such as people who inject drugs, sex workers and men who have sex with men. Estimating the size of these sub-populations is important for assessing overall HIV prevalence and designing effective interventions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the sizes of local and national HIV key affected populations. The model incorporates multiple commonly used data sources including mapping data, surveys, interventions, capture-recapture data, estimates or guesstimates from organizations, and expert opinion. The proposed model is used to estimate the numbers of people who inject drugs in Bangladesh.

Indexed as

Capture-recaptureExpert opinionHeterogeneityHIV/AIDS epidemicInjecting drug userKey affected populationMapping dataMarkov chain Monte CarloMultiplier method

Identifiers

PMID26015851
PMCPMC4442027

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.