Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26011024›Full record

ArticleBiometrics2015

Continuous versus group sequential analysis for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance.

I R Silva, M Kulldorff

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Biometrics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Robust Alpha Spending for Unstable Data.Statistics in medicine · 2026
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

I R SilvaDepartment of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, U.S.A.
M KulldorffDepartment of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, U.S.A.

Funding

Software for Near Real-Time Post-Market Drug and Vaccine Safety SurveillanceR01GM108999 · NIGMS · HARVARD PILGRIM HEALTH CARE, INC. · PI KULLDORFF, MARTIN · 2014 to 2017
$1.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM108999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The use of sequential statistical analysis for post-market drug safety surveillance is quickly emerging. Both continuous and group sequential analysis have been used, but consensus is lacking as to when to use which approach. We compare the statistical performance of continuous and group sequential analysis in terms of type I error probability; statistical power; expected time to signal when the null hypothesis is rejected; and the sample size required to end surveillance without rejecting the null. We present a mathematical proposition to show that for any group sequential design there always exists a continuous sequential design that is uniformly better. As a consequence, it is shown that more frequent testing is always better. Additionally, for a Poisson based probability model and a flat rejection boundary in terms of the log likelihood ratio, we compare the performance of various continuous and group sequential designs. Using exact calculations, we found that, for the parameter settings used, there is always a continuous design with shorter expected time to signal than the best group design. The two key conclusions from this article are (i) that any post-market safety surveillance system should attempt to obtain data as frequently as possible, and (ii) that sequential testing should always be performed when new data arrives without deliberately waiting for additional data.

Indexed as

Data Interpretation, StatisticalSentinel SurveillanceAdverse Drug Reaction Reporting SystemsDrug-Related Side Effects and Adverse ReactionsHumansPrevalenceProduct Surveillance, PostmarketingReproducibility of ResultsSensitivity and SpecificityExact sequential analysisExpected time to signalPost-market safety surveillanceUniformly better sequential design

Identifiers

PMID26011024
PMCPMC4888780

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.