Observational studyAmerican journal of epidemiology2015
Dynamic Variation in Sexual Contact Rates in a Cohort of HIV-Negative Gay Men.
Observational study in American journal of epidemiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transitions in sexual behaviour among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England: Data from a prospective study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Substance use and variation in sexual partnership rates among young MSM and young transgender women: Disaggregating between and within-person associations.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2023Article
- Model design for nonparametric phylodynamic inference and applications to pathogen surveillance.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Panel Data Analysis via Mechanistic Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2019Article
- Sensitivity of joint contagiousness and susceptibility-based dynamic optimal control strategies for HIV prevention.PloS one · 2018Article
- Noise Is Not Error: Detecting Parametric Heterogeneity Between Epidemiologic Time Series.Frontiers in microbiology · 2018Article
- A second-order iterated smoothing algorithm.Statistics and computing · 2017Article
- Frequency and determinants of consistent STI/HIV testing among men who have sex with men testing at STI outpatient clinics in the Netherlands: a longitudinal study.Sexually transmitted infections · 2017Article
- Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy.PLoS computational biology · 2016Article
- Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.Scientific reports · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission models that include variability in sexual behavior over time have shown increased incidence, prevalence, and acute-state transmission rates for a given population risk profile. This raises the question of whether dynamic variation in individual sexual behavior is a real phenomenon that can be observed and measured. To study this dynamic variation, we developed a model incorporating heterogeneity in both between-person and within-person sexual contact patterns. Using novel methodology that we call iterated filtering for longitudinal data, we fitted this model by maximum likelihood to longitudinal survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Collaborative HIV Seroincidence Study (1992-1995). We found evidence for individual heterogeneity in sexual behavior over time. We simulated an epidemic process and found that inclusion of empirically measured levels of dynamic variation in individual-level sexual behavior brought the theoretical predictions of HIV incidence into closer alignment with reality given the measured per-act probabilities of transmission. The methods developed here provide a framework for quantifying variation in sexual behaviors that helps in understanding the HIV epidemic among gay men.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.