Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25994109›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of methods in psychiatric research2015

Prediction of remission in obsessive compulsive disorder using a novel machine learning strategy.

Kathleen D Askland, Sarah Garnaat, Nicholas J Sibrava, Christina L Boisseau, David Strong, Maria Mancebo, Benjamin Greenberg, Steve Rasmussen, Jane Eisen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of methods in psychiatric research, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Kathleen D AsklandDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Sarah GarnaatDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Nicholas J SibravaDepartment of Psychology, Baruch College - The City University of New York, New York, USA.
Christina L BoisseauDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
David StrongDepartment of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
Maria ManceboDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Benjamin GreenbergDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Steve RasmussenDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Jane EisenDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Butler Hospital/Warren Alpert School of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

Funding

Longitudinal Follow-Up Study of Obsessive Compulsive DisorderR01MH060218 · NIMH · BUTLER HOSPITAL (PROVIDENCE, RI) · PI RASMUSSEN, STEVEN A · 2001 to 2015
$6.3M
A Computational Analysis of Psychiatric Genetics Data: Pathways and ArchitectureK08MH085810 · NIMH · BUTLER HOSPITAL (PROVIDENCE, RI) · PI ASKLAND, KATHLEEN DAWN · 2009 to 2013
$923k
Development of a Behavioral Team Intervention for Obsessive Compulsive DisorderK23MH091032 · NIMH · BUTLER HOSPITAL (PROVIDENCE, RI) · PI MANCEBO, MARIA C. · 2010 to 2014
$922k
NIMH NIH HHS K08 MH085810NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH091032NIMH NIH HHS MH060 218NIMH NIH HHS MH085810-05NIMH NIH HHS MH091032NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH060218
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The study objective was to apply machine learning methodologies to identify predictors of remission in a longitudinal sample of 296 adults with a primary diagnosis of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Random Forests is an ensemble machine learning algorithm that has been successfully applied to large-scale data analysis across vast biomedical disciplines, though rarely in psychiatric research or for application to longitudinal data. When provided with 795 raw and composite scores primarily from baseline measures, Random Forest regression prediction explained 50.8% (5000-run average, 95% bootstrap confidence interval [CI]: 50.3-51.3%) of the variance in proportion of time spent remitted. Machine performance improved when only the most predictive 24 items were used in a reduced analysis. Consistently high-ranked predictors of longitudinal remission included Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) items, NEO items and subscale scores, Y-BOCS symptom checklist cleaning/washing compulsion score, and several self-report items from social adjustment scales. Random Forest classification was able to distinguish participants according to binary remission outcomes with an error rate of 24.6% (95% bootstrap CI: 22.9-26.2%). Our results suggest that clinically-useful prediction of remission may not require an extensive battery of measures. Rather, a small set of assessment items may efficiently distinguish high- and lower-risk patients and inform clinical decision-making.

Indexed as

Machine LearningPsychiatric Status Rating ScalesAdultFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleObsessive-Compulsive DisorderPredictive Value of TestsPsychometricsRecurrenceRetrospective Studiesobsessive compulsive disorderrisk factorsstatistics

Identifiers

PMID25994109
PMCPMC5466447

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.