ArticleThe American journal of drug and alcohol abuse2015
Dynamic model of nonmedical opioid use trajectories and potential policy interventions.
Article in The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Association between state cannabis laws and opioid outcomes: A systematic review.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2026Pooled it
- Participatory systems mapping: a review of population health research practice.Health research policy and systems · 2026Pooled it
- System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- A Systematic Review of Simulation Models to Track and Address the Opioid Crisis.Epidemiologic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Economic Evaluation in Opioid Modeling: Systematic Review.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Pooled it
- Evaluating the use of participatory system dynamics group model building for expanding systems thinking capacity among community-based stakeholders.Journal of prevention & intervention in the community · 2026Article
- System dynamics modeling to inform implementation of evidence-based prevention of opioid overdose and fatality: A state-level model from the New York HEALing Communities Study.The International journal on drug policy · 2025Article
- System dynamics modeling in support of community-based decision-making to reduce opioid overdose fatalities.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model to Optimize Allocation of Buprenorphine in North Carolina.Statistics and public policy (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2023Article
- Hepatitis C virus risk among young people who inject drugs.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Data Needs in Opioid Systems Modeling: Challenges and Future Directions.American journal of preventive medicine · 2021Article
- Effects of Implementation and Enforcement Differences in Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs in 3 States: Connecticut, Kentucky, and Wisconsin.Substance abuse : research and treatment · 2021Article
- Modeling Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Opioid-Related Morbidity and Mortality in the US.JAMA network open · 2020Article
- The opioid crisis: need for systems science research.Health research policy and systems · 2020Article
- Strengths and weaknesses of existing data sources to support research to address the opioids crisis.Preventive medicine reports · 2020Review
- Article
- Opioid agonist treatment scale-up and the initiation of injection drug use: A dynamic modeling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2019Article
- System dynamics applications to injury and violence prevention: a systematic review.Current epidemiology reports · 2019Article
- Systems Modeling to Advance the Promise of Data Science in Epidemiology.American journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Associations between implementation of Project Lazarus and opioid analgesic dispensing and buprenorphine utilization in North Carolina, 2009-2014.Injury epidemiology · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics (POA) increased dramatically over the past two decades and remains a major health problem in the United States, contributing to over 16 000 accidental poisoning deaths in 2010.
objectivesTo create a systems-oriented theory/model to explain the historical behaviors of interest, including the various populations of nonmedical opioid users and accidental overdose mortality within those populations. To use the model to explore policy interventions including tamper-resistant drug formulations and strategies for reducing diversion of opioid medicines.
methodsA system dynamics model was constructed to represent the population of people who initiate nonmedical POA usage. The model incorporates use trajectories including development of use disorders, transitions from reliance on informal sharing to paying for drugs, transition from oral administration to tampering to facilitate non-oral routes of administration, and transition to heroin use by some users, as well as movement into and out of the population through quitting and mortality. Empirical support was drawn from national surveys (NSDUH, TEDS, MTF, and ARCOS) and published studies.
resultsThe model was able to replicate the patterns seen in the historical data for each user population, and the associated overdose deaths. Policy analysis showed that both tamper-resistant formulations and interventions to reduce informal sharing could significantly reduce nonmedical user populations and overdose deaths in the long term, but the modeled effect sizes require additional empirical support.
conclusionCreating a theory/model that can explain system behaviors at a systems level scale is feasible and facilitates thorough evaluation of policy interventions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.