ArticleInternational journal of antimicrobial agents2015
Forecasting carbapenem resistance from antimicrobial consumption surveillance: Lessons learnt from an OXA-48-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae outbreak in a West London renal unit.
Article in International journal of antimicrobial agents, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Ceftazidime with avibactam for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2024Pooled it
- Cefiderocol for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2024Pooled it
- Usefulness of dynamic regression time series models for studying the relationship between antimicrobial consumption and bacterial antimicrobial resistance in hospitals: a systematic review.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2023Pooled it
- Dynamic regression forecasting of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella spp. based on carbapenem consumption with observed data from 2020 to 2023 and projections up to 2029 in a tertiary hospital in Alexandria, Egypt.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Correlation Between Antimicrobial Consumption and Resistance inAntibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Which Classes of Antibiotics Are Associated with the Acquisition of Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacterales?Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Long-term forecast for antibacterial drug consumption in Germany using ARIMA models.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
- Systematic review of time lag between antibiotic use and rise of resistant pathogens among hospitalized adults in Europe.JAC-antimicrobial resistance · 2023Review
- An Overview on Phenotypic and Genotypic Characterisation of Carbapenem-ResistantMedicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2022Review
- OXA-48-Like β-Lactamases: Global Epidemiology, Treatment Options, and Development Pipeline.Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2022Review
- Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing and Carbapenem-ResistantInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Review
- Infection control and risk factors for acquisition of carbapenemase-producing enterobacteriaceae. A 5 year (2011-2016) case-control study.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2020Article
- The Global Ascendency of OXA-48-Type Carbapenemases.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2019Review
- Antibiotic consumption in Belgian acute care hospitals: analysis of the surveillance methodology, consumption evolution 2003 to 2016 and future perspectives.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- Article
- Article
- Epidemiology and control measures of an OXA-48-producing Enterobacteriaceae hospital-wide oligoclonal outbreak.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- Semi-Automated Visualization and ANalysis of Trends: A "SAVANT" for Facilitating Antimicrobial Stewardship Using Antistaphylococcal Resistance and Consumption as a Prototype.Open forum infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Findings from an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae emphasize the role of antibiotic treatment for cross transmission.Infection · 2018Article
- Piperacillin-tazobactam as alternative to carbapenems for ICU patients.Annals of intensive care · 2017Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This study aimed to forecast the incidence rate of carbapenem resistance and to assess the impact of an antimicrobial stewardship intervention using routine antimicrobial consumption surveillance data. Following an outbreak of OXA-48-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (January 2008-April 2010) in a renal cohort in London, a forecasting ARIMA model was derived using meropenem consumption data [defined daily dose per 100 occupied bed-days (DDD/100OBD)] from 2005-2014 as a predictor of the incidence rate of OXA-48-producing organisms (number of new cases/year/100,000OBD). Interrupted times series assessed the impact of meropenem consumption restriction as part of the outbreak control. Meropenem consumption at lag -1 year (the preceding year), highly correlated with the incidence of OXA-48-producing organisms (r=0.71; P=0.005), was included as a predictor within the forecasting model. The number of cases/100,000OBD for 2014-2015 was estimated to be 4.96 (95% CI 2.53-7.39). Analysis of meropenem consumption pre- and post-intervention demonstrated an increase of 7.12 DDD/100OBD/year (95% CI 2.97-11.27; P<0.001) in the 4 years preceding the intervention, but a decrease thereafter. The change in slope was -9.11 DDD/100OBD/year (95% CI -13.82 to -4.39). Analysis of alternative antimicrobials showed a significant increase in amikacin consumption post-intervention from 0.54 to 3.41 DDD/100OBD/year (slope +0.72, 95% CI 0.29-1.15; P=0.01). Total antimicrobials significantly decreased from 176.21 to 126.24 DDD/100OBD/year (P=0.05). Surveillance of routinely collected antimicrobial consumption data may provide a key warning indicator to anticipate increased incidence of carbapenem-resistant organisms. Further validation using real-time data is needed.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.