Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25979287›Full record

ArticleEpidemics2015

Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable.

Oliver J Brady, David L Smith, Thomas W Scott, Simon I Hay

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
57citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

57 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  7. Review
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  13. Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
    Article
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  17. Research progress of mosquito-borne virus mRNA vaccines.Molecular therapy. Methods & clinical development · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Oliver J BradySpatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: oliver.brady.zoo@gmail.com.
David L SmithSpatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, MD, USA. Electronic address: smitdave@gmail.com.
Thomas W ScottFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. Electronic address: twscott@ucdavis.edu.
Simon I HayFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; The Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, Roosevelt Drive, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK. Electronic address: simon.i.hay@gmail.com.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 095066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities) have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

Indexed as

BrazilDengueDisease OutbreaksHumansModels, TheoreticalPopulation SurveillanceDecision-makingDengueOutbreakPolicyResponse

Identifiers

PMID25979287
PMCPMC4429239

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.