ArticleEpidemics2015
The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing.
Article in Epidemics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Trachoma prevalence surveys in 15 indigenous and non-indigenous evaluation units in Brazil, 2018-2023.International health · 2026Observational
- Spread of the plague in Venice, 1630-1631: epidemic entropy in a "natural experiment".medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Modeling the "F" in "SAFE": The dynamic game of facial cleanliness in trachoma prevention.PloS one · 2023Article
- Surveillance for peri-elimination trachoma recrudescence: Exploratory studies in Ghana.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Assessing Onchocerciasis Subcriticality from Pre-Intervention Cross-Sectional Surveys.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Associations between Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and trachoma clustering at aggregate spatial scales, Amhara, Ethiopia.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Trachoma in Viet Nam: results of 11 surveillance surveys conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.Ophthalmic epidemiology · 2018Article
- Models of Trachoma Transmission and Their Policy Implications: From Control to Elimination.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2018Review
- Improving our forecasts for trachoma elimination: What else do we need to know?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Hamiltonian Analysis of Subcritical Stochastic Epidemic Dynamics.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2017Article
- Article
- Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection.Parasites & vectors · 2015Article
- Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2015Article
- The distribution of ocular Chlamydia prevalence across Tanzanian communities where trachoma is declining.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two areas of Ethiopia. These surveys were taken in a controlled setting, where infection was documented to be disappearing over time. For both sets of surveys, the geometric distribution had the most parsimonious fit of the distributions tested, and goodness-of-fit testing was consistent with the prevalence of each community being drawn from a geometric distribution. When infection is disappearing, the single sufficient parameter describing a geometric distribution captures much of the distributional information found from examining every community. The relatively heavy tail of the geometric suggests that the presence of an occasional high-prevalence community is to be expected, and does not necessarily reflect a transmission hot spot or program failure. A single cross-sectional survey can reveal which direction a program is heading. A geometric distribution of the prevalence of infection across communities may be an encouraging sign, consistent with a disease on its way to eradication.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.