ReviewJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2015
A review of back-calculation techniques and their potential to inform mitigation strategies with application to non-transmissible acute infectious diseases.
Review in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Back-projection improves inference from sparsely sampled genomic surveillance data.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Taiwan: a mathematical modeling study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Backtracking: Improved methods for identifying the source of a deliberate release of Bacillus anthracis from the temporal and spatial distribution of cases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Estimating the Epidemic Size of Superspreading Coronavirus Outbreaks in Real Time: Quantitative Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Using mixture density networks to emulate a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Epidemiological Modeling of the Impact of Public Health Policies on Hepatitis C: Protocol for a Gamification Tool Targeting Microelimination.JMIR research protocols · 2023Article
- Probabilistic Analysis of a French Legionellosis Outbreak Shows Potential Role of Wastewater Basin.Microorganisms · 2022Article
- Advancing risk assessment: mechanistic dose-response modelling ofRoyal Society open science · 2018Article
- National outbreak of Shiga toxin-producingEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2018Article
- Article
- Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event.Emerging infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.PLoS computational biology · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Back-calculation is a process whereby generally unobservable features of an event leading to a disease outbreak can be inferred either in real-time or shortly after the end of the outbreak. These features might include the time when persons were exposed and the source of the outbreak. Such inferences are important as they can help to guide the targeting of mitigation strategies and to evaluate the potential effectiveness of such strategies. This article reviews the process of back-calculation with a particular emphasis on more recent applications concerning deliberate and naturally occurring aerosolized releases. The techniques can be broadly split into two themes: the simpler temporal models and the more sophisticated spatio-temporal models. The former require input data in the form of cases' symptom onset times, whereas the latter require additional spatial information such as the cases' home and work locations. A key aspect in the back-calculation process is the incubation period distribution, which forms the initial topic for consideration. Links between atmospheric dispersion modelling, within-host dynamics and back-calculation are outlined in detail. An example of how back-calculation can inform mitigation strategies completes the review by providing improved estimates of the duration of antibiotic prophylaxis that would be required in the response to an inhalational anthrax outbreak.
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