Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25977206›Full record

ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence2015

Individualized relapse prediction: Personality measures and striatal and insular activity during reward-processing robustly predict relapse.

Joshua L Gowin, Tali M Ball, Marc Wittmann, Susan F Tapert, Martin P Paulus

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Drug and alcohol dependence, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Joshua L GowinPsychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Section on Human Psychopharmacology, Laboratory of Clinical and Translational Studies, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Bethesda, MD, United States. Electronic address: joshua.gowin@nih.gov.
Tali M BallPsychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States.
Marc WittmannPsychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Empirical and Analytical Psychophysics, Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health, Freiburg, Germany.
Susan F TapertPsychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Psychology Service, VA San Diego Healthcare System, La Jolla, CA, United States.
Martin P PaulusPsychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Psychiatry Service, VA San Diego Healthcare System, La Jolla, CA, United States; Laureate Institute for Brain Research, United States.

Funding

Neuroimaging CoreP20DA027843 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SCHULTEIS, GERHARD G · 2010 to 2013
$3.5M
NEUROBIOLOGY OF TRANSITION TO STIMULANT DEPENDENCER01DA016663 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI PAULUS, MARTIN P. · 2004 to 2010
$2.8M
Negative reinforcement and interoceptive dysfunction in stimulant dependence.R01DA027797 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI PAULUS, MARTIN P. · 2009 to 2013
$1.7M
STIMULANT DEPENDENCE: NEURAL MECHANISMS OF RELAPSER01DA018307 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI PAULUS, MARTIN P. · 2004 to 2008
$1.3M
NIDA NIH HHS P20-DA027834NIDA NIH HHS P20 DA027843NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA016663NIDA NIH HHS R01-DA016663NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA018307NIDA NIH HHS R01-DA018307NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA027797NIDA NIH HHS R01-DA027797
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNearly half of individuals with substance use disorders relapse in the year after treatment. A diagnostic tool to help clinicians make decisions regarding treatment does not exist for psychiatric conditions. Identifying individuals with high risk for relapse to substance use following abstinence has profound clinical consequences. This study aimed to develop neuroimaging as a robust tool to predict relapse.

methods68 methamphetamine-dependent adults (15 female) were recruited from 28-day inpatient treatment. During treatment, participants completed a functional MRI scan that examined brain activation during reward processing. Patients were followed 1 year later to assess abstinence. We examined brain activation during reward processing between relapsing and abstaining individuals and employed three random forest prediction models (clinical and personality measures, neuroimaging measures, a combined model) to generate predictions for each participant regarding their relapse likelihood.

results18 individuals relapsed. There were significant group by reward-size interactions for neural activation in the left insula and right striatum for rewards. Abstaining individuals showed increased activation for large, risky relative to small, safe rewards, whereas relapsing individuals failed to show differential activation between reward types. All three random forest models yielded good test characteristics such that a positive test for relapse yielded a likelihood ratio 2.63, whereas a negative test had a likelihood ratio of 0.48.

conclusionsThese findings suggest that neuroimaging can be developed in combination with other measures as an instrument to predict relapse, advancing tools providers can use to make decisions about individualized treatment of substance use disorders.

Indexed as

PersonalityPersonality TestsRewardAdultAmphetamine-Related DisordersCerebral CortexFemaleFunctional LateralityHumansLikelihood FunctionsMagnetic Resonance ImagingMaleMethamphetamineModels, NeurologicalNeostriatumNeuroimagingMethamphetamineMethamphetamine dependenceNeuroimagingRelapseRewardRisk predictionStriatum

Identifiers

PMID25977206
PMCPMC4458160

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.