Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25971584›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental health : a global access science source2015

Air toxics and birth defects: a Bayesian hierarchical approach to evaluate multiple pollutants and spina bifida.

Michael D Swartz, Yi Cai, Wenyaw Chan, Elaine Symanski, Laura E Mitchell, Heather E Danysh, Peter H Langlois, Philip J Lupo

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental health : a global access science source, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Trends in the Prevalences of Selected Birth Defects in Korea (2008⁻2014).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018
    Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Michael D SwartzDivision of Biostatistics, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Yi CaiDivision of Biostatistics, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Wenyaw ChanDivision of Biostatistics, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Elaine SymanskiDivision of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Laura E MitchellDivision of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Heather E DanyshDepartment of Pediatrics, Section of Hematology-Oncology and Texas Children's Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
Peter H LangloisBirth Defects Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch, Texas Department of State Health Services, Austin, TX, USA.
Philip J LupoDepartment of Pediatrics, Section of Hematology-Oncology and Texas Children's Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA. Philip.Lupo@bcm.edu.

Funding

Texas Center for Birth Defects Research and PreventionU01DD000494 · DD · TEXAS STATE DEPT OF HEALTH SERVICES · PI CANFIELD, MARK A · 2009 to 2013
$3.9M
Air Toxics, Neighborhood Environment and Risk of Oral CleftsR03DE021739 · NIDCR · BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE · PI LUPO, PHILIP · 2012 to 2013
$314k
NCBDD CDC HHS U01 DD000494NCBDD CDC HHS U01DD000494NIDCR NIH HHS R03 DE02173901
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile there is evidence that maternal exposure to benzene is associated with spina bifida in offspring, to our knowledge there have been no assessments to evaluate the role of multiple hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) simultaneously on the risk of this relatively common birth defect. In the current study, we evaluated the association between maternal exposure to HAPs identified by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and spina bifida in offspring using hierarchical Bayesian modeling that includes Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS).

methodsThe Texas Birth Defects Registry provided data on spina bifida cases delivered between 1999 and 2004. The control group was a random sample of unaffected live births, frequency matched to cases on year of birth. Census tract-level estimates of annual HAP levels were obtained from the U.S. EPA's 1999 Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide. Using the distribution among controls, exposure was categorized as high exposure (>95(th) percentile), medium exposure (5(th)-95(th) percentile), and low exposure (<5(th) percentile, reference). We used hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models with SSVS to evaluate the association between HAPs and spina bifida by computing an odds ratio (OR) for each HAP using the posterior mean, and a 95% credible interval (CI) using the 2.5(th) and 97.5(th) quantiles of the posterior samples. Based on previous assessments, any pollutant with a Bayes factor greater than 1 was selected for inclusion in a final model.

resultsTwenty-five HAPs were selected in the final analysis to represent "bins" of highly correlated HAPs (ρ > 0.80). We identified two out of 25 HAPs with a Bayes factor greater than 1: quinoline (ORhigh = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.11-3.87, Bayes factor = 1.01) and trichloroethylene (ORmedium = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.14-3.61, Bayes factor = 3.79).

conclusionsOverall there is evidence that quinoline and trichloroethylene may be significant contributors to the risk of spina bifida. Additionally, the use of Bayesian hierarchical models with SSVS is an alternative approach in the evaluation of multiple environmental pollutants on disease risk. This approach can be easily extended to environmental exposures, where novel approaches are needed in the context of multi-pollutant modeling.

Indexed as

Maternal ExposureAdolescentAdultAir PollutantsBayes TheoremEnvironmental MonitoringFemaleHazardous SubstancesHumansInfant, NewbornLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalOdds RatioPregnancyAir PollutantsHazardous Substances

Identifiers

PMID25971584
PMCPMC4429479

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.