ArticleEcology letters2015
The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.
Article in Ecology letters, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Seasonal forecasting of dissolved organic carbon in a Mediterranean catchment: Enhancing upstream control of disinfection by-product precursors.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2026Article
- Calibration, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Ecological Models-A Review.Ecology letters · 2026Review
- Rethinking Model Transferability: Validity Domains as a New Approach to Delineate the Limits of Bloom Date Projections.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Algorithmic reconstruction of trophic networks from open-access species lists reveals key organisms in real ecosystems.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Plasticity in climate change responses.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025Review
- Multivariate signals of population collapse in a high-throughput ecological experiment.Ecology · 2025Article
- Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Eco-evolutionary robustness of wild bacterial communities to experimental perturbation.The ISME journal · 2025Article
- Graph neural networks and transfer entropy enhance forecasting of mesozooplankton community dynamics.Environmental science and ecotechnology · 2025Article
- What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025Article
- Variability of functional and biodiversity responses to perturbations is predictable and informative.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Local-manifold-distance-based regression: an estimation method for quantifying dynamic biological interactions with empirical time series.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Predicting evolution in experimental range expansions of an aquatic model system.Evolution letters · 2023Article
- Constraining nonlinear time series modeling with the metabolic theory of ecology.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Review
- Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Review
- Towards the fully automated monitoring of ecological communities.Ecology letters · 2022Review
- Forecasting in the face of ecological complexity: Number and strength of species interactions determine forecast skill in ecological communities.Ecology letters · 2022Article
- Genetic architecture of dispersal and local adaptation drives accelerating range expansions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology.Ecology letters · 2022Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.