ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2015
Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Simulating contact networks for livestock disease epidemiology: a systematic review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Pooled it
- Allocating limited surveillance effort for outbreak detection of endemic foot and mouth disease.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Where to refine spatial data to improve accuracy in crop disease modelling: an analytical approach with examples for cassava.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Data quality assessment of pig movements in the Norwegian Livestock Register reveals challenges for outbreak preparedness.BMC veterinary research · 2025Article
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- Article
- Cattle transport network predicts endemic and epidemic foot-and-mouth disease risk on farms in Turkey.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Beyond ranking nodes: Predicting epidemic outbreak sizes by network centralities.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Realistic assumptions about spatial locations and clustering of premises matter for models of foot-and-mouth disease spread in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections.Nature sustainability · 2019Article
- Invited review: Big Data in precision dairy farming.Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience · 2019Review
- Spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of swine shipments in the U.S. based on Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Machine Learning Model for Imbalanced Cholera Dataset in Tanzania.TheScientificWorldJournal · 2019Article
- Dynamic network measures reveal the impact of cattle markets and alpine summering on the risk of epidemic outbreaks in the Swiss cattle population.BMC veterinary research · 2018Article
- Towards the description of livestock mobility in Sahelian Africa: Some results from a survey in Mauritania.PloS one · 2018Article
- Global Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses: Predicting Pandemics.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2018Article
- Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
'Big-data' epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.
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Registered trials
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