Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25941385›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015

Limits to adaptation along environmental gradients.

Jitka Polechová, Nicholas H Barton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 69 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
69citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

69 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Evolution of species' range and niche in changing environments.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  13. Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Review
  14. Article
  15. Evolutionary adaptation under climate change:bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Genotype-by-environment interactions and local adaptation shape selection in the US National Chip Processing Trial.TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik · 2024
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Jitka PolechováInstitute of Science and Technology Austria (IST Austria), A-3400 Klosterneuburg, Austria jitka@ist.ac.at.
Nicholas H BartonInstitute of Science and Technology Austria (IST Austria), A-3400 Klosterneuburg, Austria.

Funding

European Research Council 250152
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Why do species not adapt to ever-wider ranges of conditions, gradually expanding their ecological niche and geographic range? Gene flow across environments has two conflicting effects: although it increases genetic variation, which is a prerequisite for adaptation, gene flow may swamp adaptation to local conditions. In 1956, Haldane proposed that, when the environment varies across space, "swamping" by gene flow creates a positive feedback between low population size and maladaptation, leading to a sharp range margin. However, current deterministic theory shows that, when variance can evolve, there is no such limit. Using simple analytical tools and simulations, we show that genetic drift can generate a sharp margin to a species' range, by reducing genetic variance below the level needed for adaptation to spatially variable conditions. Aided by separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales, the identified effective dimensionless parameters reveal a simple threshold that predicts when adaptation at the range margin fails. Two observable parameters determine the threshold: (i) the effective environmental gradient, which can be measured by the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment; and (ii) the efficacy of selection relative to genetic drift. The theory predicts sharp range margins even in the absence of abrupt changes in the environment. Furthermore, it implies that gradual worsening of conditions across a species' habitat may lead to a sudden range fragmentation, when adaptation to a wide span of conditions within a single species becomes impossible.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionEnvironmentModels, BiologicalAdaptation, BiologicalComputer SimulationDemographyGenetic DriftGenetic FitnessGenetics, PopulationSelection, GeneticStochastic Processesgenetic driftgenetic variationheterogeneous environmentrange marginspecies’ range

Identifiers

PMID25941385
PMCPMC4443383

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.