ArticlePloS one2015
Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Article
- Development and application of whole-herd-sampling, qPCR-based-testing, and precision-removal methods to eliminate ASFV in four large swine herds in China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Aggregate Oral Fluid Sampling for Early Detection of African Swine Fever Virus Infection.Viruses · 2025Article
- Disease outbreak data to inform decision-making: the role of disease spread models in the Lao P.D.R. African Swine Fever epidemic, 2019.Tropical animal health and production · 2025Article
- The Reproduction Number of Swine Viral Respiratory Diseases: A Systematic Review.Veterinary sciences · 2024Review
- Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People's Republic of China, August 2018-September 2019.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Global Basic Reproduction Number of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and a Mental Model to Explore the Disease Dynamics.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
- Epidemiological Assessment of African Swine Fever Spread in the Dominican Republic.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Dynamic Analysis and Optimal Control of Fractional Order African Swine Fever Models with Media Coverage.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Pathobiological analysis of african swine fever virus contact-exposed pigs and estimation of the basic reproduction number of the virus in Vietnam.Porcine health management · 2023Article
- Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Article
- Estimation of the herd-level basic reproduction number for African swine fever in Vietnam, 2019.Veterinary world · 2022Article
- Estimation of RViruses · 2022Article
- Assessing the geographic range of classical swine fever vaccinations by spatiotemporal modelling in Japan.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam.Veterinary sciences · 2022Article
- Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union: (September 2020 to August 2021).EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2022Article
- Estimation of basic reproduction number (RFrontiers in veterinary science · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.