Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25934268›Full record

ArticleSocial science & medicine (1982)2015

Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.

Javier M Rodriguez, Arline T Geronimus, John Bound, Danny Dorling

Abstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Social science & medicine (1982), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed.

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  12. Policing Is a Public Health Issue: The Important Role of Health Educators.Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education · 2021
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Elections have Consequences: Partisan Politics may be Literally Killing Us.Applied health economics and health policy · 2021
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Race and ethnic variation in college students' allostatic regulation of racism-related stress.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Javier M RodriguezMathematica Policy Research, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA.
Arline T GeronimusDepartment of Health Behavior and Health Education, University of Michigan, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA; Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, USA. Electronic address: arline@umich.edu.
John BoundGeorge E. Johnson Collegiate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Michigan, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA; Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, USA.
Danny DorlingHalford Mackinder Professor of Geography, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford University, UK.

Funding

TRAINING IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHYT32HD007339 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Sarah A. Burgard · 1987 to 2026
$14.9M
Population Studies Center Infrastructure GrantR24HD041028 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI SMOCK, PAMELA J. · 2001 to 2016
$13.2M
NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD041028NICHD NIH HHS T32 HD007339
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypothetical survivors to 2004, (3) the probability that survivors would have turned out to vote in 2004, (4) total black votes lost in 2004, and (5) total black votes lost by each presidential candidate. We estimate 2.7 million excess black deaths between 1970 and 2004. Of those, 1.9 million would have survived until 2004, of which over 1.7 million would have been of voting-age. We estimate that 1 million black votes were lost in 2004; of these, 900,000 votes were lost by the defeated Democratic presidential nominee. We find that many close state-level elections over the study period would likely have had different outcomes if voting age blacks had the mortality profiles of whites. US black voting rights are also eroded through felony disenfranchisement laws and other measures that dampen the voice of the US black electorate. Systematic disenfranchisement by population group yields an electorate that is unrepresentative of the full interests of the citizenry and affects the chance that elected officials have mandates to eliminate health inequality.

Indexed as

Health Status DisparitiesPoliticsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionBlack or African AmericanChildChild, PreschoolHistory, 20th CenturyHistory, 21st CenturyHumansMiddle AgedMortality, PrematureUnited StatesElectorateHealth disparitiesHealth policyPolitical inequalityPremature mortalityRaceVoting

Identifiers

PMID25934268
PMCPMC4465208

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.