ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2015
The Role of Gastroesophageal Reflux and Other Factors during Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.
Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
- Abdominal obesity and gastroesophageal cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.Bioscience reports · 2017Pooled it
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- Trends in uterine cancer incidence and mortality: insights from a natural history model.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- German guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of squamous-cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus-version 4.0.ESMO gastrointestinal oncology · 2025Review
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- Field carcinogenesis and biological significance of the potential of the bystander effect: carcinogenesis, therapeutic response, and tissue regeneration.Surgery today · 2023Review
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- Global burden and epidemiology of Barrett oesophagus and oesophageal cancer.Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2021Review
- Modeling historic incidence trends implies early field cancerization in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling.Cancer research · 2021Article
- The Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Epidemic Has Reached Hungary: A Multicenter, Cross-Sectional Study.Frontiers in oncology · 2020Article
- Alterations to the Esophageal Microbiome Associated with Progression from Barrett's Esophagus to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2019Article
- Ingested asbestos in filtered beer, in addition to occupational exposure, as a causative factor in oesophageal adenocarcinoma.British journal of cancer · 2019Review
- High Mean Corpuscular Volume Predicts Poor Outcome for Patients With Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma.Annals of surgical oncology · 2019Article
- Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: How Common Are They Really?Digestive diseases and sciences · 2018Review
- Case Studies of Gastric, Lung, and Oral Cancer Connect Etiologic Agent Prevalence to Cancer Incidence.Cancer research · 2018Article
- An evolutionary perspective on field cancerization.Nature reviews. Cancer · 2018Review
- Evolution of Premalignant Disease.Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in medicine · 2017Review
- A Systematic Approach to Determining the Identifiability of Multistage Carcinogenesis Models.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundU.S. esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence increased over 5-fold between 1975 and 2009. Symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease (sGERD) elevates the risk for EAC. However, a simple calculation suggests that changes in sGERD prevalence can explain at most approximately 16% of this trend. Importantly, a mechanistic understanding of the influence of sGERD and other factors (OF) on EAC is lacking.
methodsA multiscale model was developed to estimate temporal trends for sGERD and OF, and their mechanistic role during carcinogenesis. Model calibration was to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and age-dependent sGERD data using maximum likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
resultsAmong men, 77.8% [95% credibility interval (CI), 64.9%-85.6%] of the incidence trend is attributable to OF, 13.4% (95% CI, 11.4%-17.3%) to sGERD, and 8.8% (95% CI, 4.2%-13.7%) to sGERD-OF interactions. Among women, 32.6% (95% CI, 27.0%-39.9%) of the trend is attributable to OF, 13.6% (95% CI, 12.5%-15.9%) to sGERD, and 47.4% (95% CI, 30.7%-64.6%) to interactions. The predicted trends were compared with historical trends for obesity, smoking, and proton pump inhibitor use. Interestingly, predicted OF cohort trends correlated most highly with median body mass index (BMI) at age 50 (r = 0.988 for men; r = 0.998 for women).
conclusionssGERD and OF mechanistically increase premalignant cell promotion, which increases EAC risk exponentially with exposure duration. IMPACT: Surveillance should target individuals with long-duration sGERD and OF exposures.
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