Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25928502›Full record

ArticleTrials2015

Specifying the target difference in the primary outcome for a randomised controlled trial: guidance for researchers.

Jonathan A Cook, Jenni Hislop, Douglas G Altman, Peter Fayers, Andrew H Briggs, Craig R Ramsay, John D Norrie, Ian M Harvey, Brian Buckley, Dean Fergusson and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Trials, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Colchicine for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Structure-Function Relationships in the Rodent Streptozotocin-Induced Model for Diabetic Retinopathy: A Systematic Review.Journal of ocular pharmacology and therapeutics : the official journal of the Association for Ocular Pharmacology and Therapeutics · 2022
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Guideline
  5. Pooled it
  6. Trial
  7. Trial
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  10. An RCT study comparing the clinical and radiological outcomes with the use of PLIF or TLIF after instrumented reduction in adult isthmic spondylolisthesis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2016
    Trial
  11. Trial
  12. Refined trial sequential analysis for meta-analyses with few studies.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2026
    Article
  13. Article
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  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
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  20. Living Systematic Reviews.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Jonathan A CookCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Botnar Research Centre, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, UK. jonathan.cook@ndorms.ox.ac.uk.
Jenni HislopInstitute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, The Baddiley-Clark Building, Richardson Road, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 4AX, UK. jenni.hislop@newcastle.ac.uk.
Douglas G AltmanCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Botnar Research Centre, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, UK. doug.altman@csm.ox.ac.uk.
Peter FayersPopulation Health, University of Aberdeen, Polwarth Building, Foresterhill, Aberdeen, AB25 2ZD, UK. p.fayers@abdn.ac.uk.
Andrew H BriggsHealth Economics and Health Technology Assessment, University of Glasgow, 1 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK. Andrew.briggs@glasgow.ac.uk.
Craig R RamsayHealth Services Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Health Sciences Building, Foresthill, Aberdeen, AB25 2ZD, UK. c.r.ramsay@abdn.ac.uk.
John D NorrieCentre for Healthcare Randomised Trials (CHaRT), University of Aberdeen, Health Sciences Building, Aberdeen, AB25 2ZD, UK. j.norrie@abdn.ac.uk.
Ian M HarveyFaculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of East Anglia, Elizabeth Fry Building, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. Ian.harvey@uea.ac.uk.
Brian BuckleyNational University of Ireland, University Road, Galway, Ireland. briansbuckley@gmail.com.
Dean FergussonClinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, 725 Parkdale Avenue, Ottawa, ON, K1Y 4E9, Canada. dafergusson@ohri.ca.
Ian FordRobertson Centre for Biostatistics, University of Glasgow, Boyd Orr Building, University Avenue, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK. ian.ford@glasgow.ac.uk.
Luke D ValeInstitute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, The Baddiley-Clark Building, Richardson Road, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 4AX, UK. luke.vale@newcastle.ac.uk.
DELTA group

Funding

Cancer Research UK 16895Medical Research Council G0601938Medical Research Council G0902147Medical Research Council G1002292Medical Research Council MR/K02325X/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCentral to the design of a randomised controlled trial is the calculation of the number of participants needed. This is typically achieved by specifying a target difference and calculating the corresponding sample size, which provides reassurance that the trial will have the required statistical power (at the planned statistical significance level) to identify whether a difference of a particular magnitude exists. Beyond pure statistical or scientific concerns, it is ethically imperative that an appropriate number of participants should be recruited. Despite the critical role of the target difference for the primary outcome in the design of randomised controlled trials, its determination has received surprisingly little attention. This article provides guidance on the specification of the target difference for the primary outcome in a sample size calculation for a two parallel group randomised controlled trial with a superiority question.

methodsThis work was part of the DELTA (Difference ELicitation in TriAls) project. Draft guidance was developed by the project steering and advisory groups utilising the results of the systematic review and surveys. Findings were circulated and presented to members of the combined group at a face-to-face meeting, along with a proposed outline of the guidance document structure, containing recommendations and reporting items for a trial protocol and report. The guidance and was subsequently drafted and circulated for further comment before finalisation.

resultsGuidance on specification of a target difference in the primary outcome for a two group parallel randomised controlled trial was produced. Additionally, a list of reporting items for protocols and trial reports was generated.

conclusionsSpecification of the target difference for the primary outcome is a key component of a randomized controlled trial sample size calculation. There is a need for better justification of the target difference and reporting of its specification.

Indexed as

Sample SizeData Interpretation, StatisticalEndpoint DeterminationHumansPractice Guidelines as TopicRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicTreatment Outcome

Identifiers

PMID25928502
PMCPMC4302137

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.