ArticleBMC public health2015
The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California.
Article in BMC public health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 94 citations in OpenAlex.
- Factors affecting the vaccination choices of pregnant women for their children: a systematic review of the literature.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2020Pooled it
- Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015).BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Mobility between communities can reduce the impact of measles intervention during an outbreak: a mathematical modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Estimating the risk and spatial spread of measles in populations with high MMR uptake: Using school-household networks to understand the 2013 to 2014 outbreak in the Netherlands.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Are all underimmunized measles clusters equally critical?Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Are all underimmunized measles clusters equally critical?medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden.Vaccine: X · 2023Article
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- COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Measles epidemic in Southern Vietnam: an age-stratified spatio-temporal model for infectious disease counts.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections.American journal of preventive medicine · 2022Article
- Trends, barriers and enablers to measles immunisation coverage in Saskatchewan, Canada: A mixed methods study.PloS one · 2022Article
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- Article
- Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Preferences for a COVID-19 vaccine in Australia.Vaccine · 2021Article
- Contact tracing - Old models and new challenges.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Dynamics Models.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2021Article
- Risk of disease and willingness to vaccinate in the United States: A population-based survey.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMeasles cases continue to occur among susceptible individuals despite the elimination of endemic measles transmission in the United States. Clustering of disease susceptibility can threaten herd immunity and impact the likelihood of disease outbreaks in a highly vaccinated population. Previous studies have examined the role of contact tracing to control infectious diseases among clustered populations, but have not explicitly modeled the public health response using an agent-based model.
methodsWe developed an agent-based simulation model of measles transmission using the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED) and the Synthetic Population Database maintained by RTI International. The simulation of measles transmission was based on interactions among individuals in different places: households, schools, daycares, workplaces, and neighborhoods. The model simulated different levels of immunity clustering, vaccination coverage, and contact investigations with delays caused by individuals' behaviors and/or the delay in a health department's response. We examined the effects of these characteristics on the probability of uncontrolled measles outbreaks and the outbreak size in 365 days after the introduction of one index case into a synthetic population.
resultsWe found that large measles outbreaks can be prevented with contact investigations and moderate contact rates by having (1) a very high vaccination coverage (≥ 95%) with a moderate to low level of immunity clustering (≤ 0.5) for individuals aged less than or equal to 18 years, or (2) a moderate vaccination coverage (85% or 90%) with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age), a short intervention delay, and a high probability that a contact can be traced. Without contact investigations, measles outbreaks may be prevented by the highest vaccination coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) with moderate contact rates; but for the highest contact rates, even the highest coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) cannot completely prevent measles outbreaks.
conclusionsThe simulation results demonstrated the importance of vaccination coverage, clustering of immunity, and contact investigations in preventing uncontrolled measles outbreaks.
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