Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25926315›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2015

Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate.

John Rose, Thomas G Weiser, Phil Hider, Leona Wilson, Russell L Gruen, Stephen W Bickler

5 registry-linked trialsOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 5 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 181 papers, 13 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
181citing papers in PubMed, 13 pooled it
35.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03365726 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2016, after this paper: background citation

Intraoperative Stress Test With Dobutamine and Speckle Tracking to Decrease Postoperative Mortality

TypeinterventionalSponsorMcGill University Health Centre/Research Institute of the McGill University Health CentreRan2016 to 2021Enrolled140ConditionsMortality After Major Non Cardiac SurgeryArmsDobutamine stress test with trans-esophageal echocardiography
NCT04330950 completednot on this mapstarted 2020, after this paper: background citation

A Preliminary Study of the Incidence, Risk Factors and Sequelae of Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients Undergoing Major Non-Cardiac Surgery in Singapore

TypeobservationalSponsorNational University Hospital, SingaporeRan2020 to 2022Enrolled98ConditionsPostoperative DeliriumArmsNeurocognitive tests
NCT04617210 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2020, after this paper: background citation

Risk Factors for Postoperative Delirium in Elderly Patients Undergoing Major Non-Cardiac Surgery in Singapore

TypeobservationalSponsorNational University Hospital, SingaporeRan2020 to 2023Enrolled150ConditionsPostoperative DeliriumArmsNeurocognitive tests and blood taking
NCT04792554 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Singapore Perioperative Ageing Study (Sing-PAS)

TypeobservationalSponsorNational University Hospital, SingaporeRan2021 to 2026Enrolled600ConditionsPostoperative Delirium, Aging, Myocardial InjuryArmsNeurocognitive tests and blood taking
NCT06203171 completednot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Preoperative Evaluation: Impact on Perioperative Complications

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorSamsun UniversityRan2023 to 2024Enrolled1,000ConditionsPerioperative ComplicationArmsObservational
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

181 citing papers in PubMed, 13 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 419 citations in OpenAlex.

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  5. The impact of anesthesia instruments and drugs on the occurrence of vocal cord injury, systematic review and meta-analysis.European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery · 2025
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  14. The connexin 43 carboxyl terminal mimetic peptide αCT1 prompts differentiation of a collagen scar matrix in humans resembling unwounded skin.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2021
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121 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

John RoseDivision of Pediatric Surgery, Radys Children's Hospital, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA; Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Thomas G WeiserDepartment of Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
Phil HiderDepartment of Population Health, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Perioperative Mortality Review Committee, Health Quality and Safety Commission, Wellington, New Zealand.
Leona WilsonPerioperative Mortality Review Committee, Health Quality and Safety Commission, Wellington, New Zealand; Department of Anesthesia, Hutt Valley District Health Board, Lower Hutt, New Zealand.
Russell L GruenNational Trauma Research Institute, Alfred and Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Stephen W BicklerDivision of Pediatric Surgery, Radys Children's Hospital, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA. Electronic address: sbickler@ucsd.edu.
Brigham and Women's Hospital · USHutt Hospital · NZNational Trauma Research Institute · AURady Children's Hospital-San Diego · USStanford University · USUniversity of Otago · NZ

Funding

The Universidade Eduardo Mondlane/UCSD Medical Education PartnershipR24TW008910 · FIC · EDUARDO MONDLANE UNIVERSITY · PI BICKLER, STEPHEN W, NOORMAHOMED, EMILIA VIRGINIA · 2010 to 2014
$2.0M
FIC NIH HHS R24 TW008910
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSurgery is a foundational component of health-care systems. However, previous efforts to integrate surgical services into global health initiatives do not reflect the scope of surgical need and many health systems do not provide essential interventions. We estimate the minimum global volume of surgical need to address prevalent diseases in 21 epidemiological regions from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD).

methodsPrevalence data were obtained from GBD 2010 and organised into 119 disease states according to the WHO's Global Health Estimate (GHE). These data, representing 187 countries, were then apportioned into the 21 GBD epidemiological regions. Using previously defined values for the incident need for surgery for each of the 119 GHE disease states, we calculate minimum global need for surgery based on the prevalence of each condition in each region.

findingsWe estimate that at least 321·5 million surgical procedures would be needed to address the burden of disease for a global population of 6·9 billion in 2010. Minimum rates of surgical need vary across regions, ranging from 3383 operations per 100 000 in central Latin America to 6495 operations per 100 000 in western sub-Saharan Africa. Global surgical need also varied across subcategories of disease, ranging from 131 412 procedures for nutritional deficiencies to 45·8 million procedures for unintentional injuries.

interpretationThe estimated need for surgical procedures worldwide is large and addresses a broad spectrum of disease states. Surgical need varies between regions of the world according to disease prevalence and many countries do not meet the basic needs of their populations. These estimates could be useful for policy makers, funders, and ministries of health as they consider how to incorporate surgical capacity into health systems.

fundingUS National Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

Global HealthHealth Services Needs and DemandPrevalenceHumansSurgical Procedures, OperativeWorld Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID25926315
PMCPMC5746187
OpenAlexW2157230492

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.