Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25918167›Full record

ArticleHuman molecular genetics2015

Genomic prediction of complex human traits: relatedness, trait architecture and predictive meta-models.

Athina Spiliopoulou, Reka Nagy, Mairead L Bermingham, Jennifer E Huffman, Caroline Hayward, Veronique Vitart, Igor Rudan, Harry Campbell, Alan F Wright, James F Wilson and 4 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Human molecular genetics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
2.0field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. An update on the genetics of hyperuricaemia and gout.Nature reviews. Rheumatology · 2018
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Athina SpiliopoulouMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK, Pharmatics Limited, Edinburgh EH16 4UX, UK.
Reka NagyMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Mairead L BerminghamMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Jennifer E HuffmanMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Caroline HaywardMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Veronique VitartMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Igor RudanCentre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, UK and.
Harry CampbellCentre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, UK and.
Alan F WrightMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
James F WilsonCentre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, UK and.
Ricardo Pong-WongThe Roslin Institute and Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK.
Felix AgakovPharmatics Limited, Edinburgh EH16 4UX, UK.
Pau NavarroMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK.
Chris S HaleyMRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK, The Roslin Institute and Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK chris.haley@igmm.ed.ac.uk.
University of Edinburgh · GBMRC Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine · GBRoslin Institute · GB

Funding

Arthritis Research UKBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/I014144/1Medical Research Council MC_PC_U127561128Medical Research Council MC_PC_U127592696Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge.

Indexed as

Models, GeneticPhenotypeBody Mass IndexCohort StudiesCroatiaDatabases, GeneticEmpirical ResearchGenetic MarkersGenome-Wide Association StudyGenomicsGenotypeHumansLipoproteins, HDLPolymorphism, Single NucleotideQuantitative Trait LociSample SizeGenetic MarkersLipoproteins, HDL

Identifiers

PMID25918167
PMCPMC4476450
OpenAlexW2162830565

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.