Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25902519›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015

The amplification of risk in experimental diffusion chains.

Mehdi Moussaïd, Henry Brighton, Wolfgang Gaissmaier

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Trade-offs, control conditions, and alternative designs in the experimental study of cultural evolution.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Peer-to-peer: The Social Transmission of Symptoms Online.Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine · 2023
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. The social amplification of risk framework: New perspectives.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2022
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Similarity in functional brain connectivity at rest predicts interpersonal closeness in the social network of an entire village.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
    Article
  20. A brief history of risk.Cognition · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Mehdi MoussaïdCenter for Adaptive Rationality, Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, and mehdi.moussaid@gmail.com.
Henry BrightonCenter for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, and.
Wolfgang GaissmaierCenter for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, and Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany; and Department of Psychology, Social Psychology and Decision Sciences, University of Konstanz, 78457 Konstanz, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding how people form and revise their perception of risk is central to designing efficient risk communication methods, eliciting risk awareness, and avoiding unnecessary anxiety among the public. However, public responses to hazardous events such as climate change, contagious outbreaks, and terrorist threats are complex and difficult-to-anticipate phenomena. Although many psychological factors influencing risk perception have been identified in the past, it remains unclear how perceptions of risk change when propagated from one person to another and what impact the repeated social transmission of perceived risk has at the population scale. Here, we study the social dynamics of risk perception by analyzing how messages detailing the benefits and harms of a controversial antibacterial agent undergo change when passed from one person to the next in 10-subject experimental diffusion chains. Our analyses show that when messages are propagated through the diffusion chains, they tend to become shorter, gradually inaccurate, and increasingly dissimilar between chains. In contrast, the perception of risk is propagated with higher fidelity due to participants manipulating messages to fit their preconceptions, thereby influencing the judgments of subsequent participants. Computer simulations implementing this simple influence mechanism show that small judgment biases tend to become more extreme, even when the injected message contradicts preconceived risk judgments. Our results provide quantitative insights into the social amplification of risk perception, and can help policy makers better anticipate and manage the public response to emerging threats.

Indexed as

Diffusion of InnovationPerceptionRisk AssessmentAlgorithmsAnti-Infective Agents, LocalComputer SimulationHumansInformation DisseminationModels, PsychologicalOutcome Assessment, Health CareRisk FactorsTriclosanAnti-Infective Agents, LocalTriclosancollective behaviordiffusion chainsopinion dynamicsrisk perceptionsocial transmission

Identifiers

PMID25902519
PMCPMC4426405

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.