Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25893103›Full record

ArticleOpen heart

Clinical prediction of incident heart failure risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Hong Yang, Kazuaki Negishi, Petr Otahal, Thomas H Marwick

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Open heart. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
51citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

51 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Trial
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Observational
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Hong YangMenzies Institute for Medical Research , Hobart, Tasmania , Australia.
Kazuaki NegishiMenzies Institute for Medical Research , Hobart, Tasmania , Australia.
Petr OtahalMenzies Institute for Medical Research , Hobart, Tasmania , Australia.
Thomas H MarwickMenzies Institute for Medical Research , Hobart, Tasmania , Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEarly treatment may alter progression to overt heart failure (HF) in asymptomatic individuals with stage B HF (SBHF). However, the identification of patients with SBHF is difficult. This systematic review sought to examine the strength of association of clinical factors with incident HF, with the intention of facilitating selection for HF screening.

methodsElectronic databases were systematically searched for studies reporting risk factors for incident HF. Effect sizes, typically HRs, of each risk variable were extracted. Pooled crude and adjusted HRs with 95% CIs were computed for each risk variable using a random-effects model weighted by inverse variance.

resultsTwenty-seven clinical factors were identified to be associated with risk of incident HF in 15 observational studies in unselected community populations which followed 456 850 participants over 4-29 years. The strongest independent associations for incident HF were coronary artery disease (HR=2.94; 95% CI 1.36 to 6.33), diabetes mellitus (HR=2.00; 95% CI 1.68 to 2.38), age (HR (per 10 years)=1.80; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.87) followed by hypertension (HR=1.61; 95% CI 1.33 to 1.96), smoking (HR=1.60; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.77), male gender (HR=1.52; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.87) and body mass index (HR (per 5 kg/m(2))=1.15; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25). Atrial fibrillation (HR=1.88; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.21), left ventricular hypertrophy (HR=2.46; 95% CI 1.71 to 3.53) and valvular heart disease (HR=1.74; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.84) were also strongly associated with incident HF but were not examined in sufficient papers to provide pooled hazard estimates.

conclusionsPrediction of incident HF can be calculated from seven common clinical variables. The risk associated with these may guide strategies for the identification of high-risk people who may benefit from further evaluation and intervention.

Indexed as

HEART FAILURE

Identifiers

PMID25893103
PMCPMC4395833

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.