ArticleMathematical modelling of natural phenomena2014
Coupling Vector-host Dynamics with Weather Geography and Mitigation Measures to Model Rift Valley Fever in Africa.
Article in Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Knowledge mapping of risk mitigation measures against vector-borne diseases.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2026Article
- Prevalence and identification of arthropod-transmitted viruses in Kassala state, Eastern Sudan.The Libyan journal of medicine · 2019Article
- Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.Veterinary sciences · 2019Review
- Epidemiological Data Challenges: Planning for a More Robust Future Through Data Standards.Frontiers in public health · 2018Article
- Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2018Article
- Rift Valley fever vector diversity and impact of meteorological and environmental factors on Culex pipiens dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.Parasites & vectors · 2016Article
- A network-patch methodology for adapting agent-based models for directly transmitted disease to mosquito-borne disease.Journal of biological dynamics · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
We present and characterize a multi-host epidemic model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus in East Africa with geographic spread on a network, rule-based mitigation measures, and mosquito infection and population dynamics. Susceptible populations are depleted by disease and vaccination and are replenished with the birth of new animals. We observe that the severity of the epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of the rainy season and that even severe epidemics are abruptly terminated when the rain stops. Because naturally acquired herd immunity is established, total mortality across 25 years is relatively insensitive to many mitigation approaches. Strong reductions in cattle mortality are expected, however, with sufficient reduction in population densities of either vectors or susceptible (ie. unvaccinated) hosts. A better understanding of RVF epidemiology would result from serology surveys to quantify the importance of herd immunity in epidemic control, and sequencing of virus from representative animals to quantify the realative importance of transportation and local reservoirs in nucleating yearly epidemics. Our results suggest that an effective multi-layered mitigation strategy would include vector control, movement control, and vaccination of young animals yearly, even in the absence of expected rainfall.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.