ArticleBMC public health2015
Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.
Article in BMC public health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed.
- Validation of DIABSCORE in screening for Type 2 Diabetes and prediabetes in Tunisian population.PloS one · 2018Trial
- Indirect estimation of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the sub-population of Tehran: using non-laboratory risk-score models in Iran.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2024Article
- Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Effects ofFood science & nutrition · 2023Article
- The first exome wide association study in Tunisia: identification of candidate loci and pathways with biological relevance for type 2 diabetes.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2023Article
- The Role of Dietary Intake in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Importance of Macro and Micronutrients in Glucose Homeostasis.Nutrients · 2022Article
- Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2021Article
- An open source tool to compute measures of inpatient glycemic control: translating from healthcare analytics research to clinical quality improvement.JAMIA open · 2021Article
- Management of diabetics. Comparative study of two contrasting health structures.La Tunisie medicale · 2021Article
- Prevalence of Hypertension and Adherence to Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Diet Score in Childbearing Age Tunisian Women: A Cross-Sectional Study.BioMed research international · 2021Article
- Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Cardio-metabolic risk factors in Tunisia: state of the art.Internal and emergency medicine · 2020Review
- Article
- Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.Population health metrics · 2019Article
- Explaining income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in Tunisian adults during the last decade: comparison of sensitivity analysis of logistic regression and Wagstaff decomposition analysis.International journal for equity in health · 2019Article
- Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Algorithm.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2019Article
- Context-led capacity building in time of crisis: fostering non-communicable diseases (NCD) research skills in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa.Global health action · 2019Article
- Gender differences in the association of ELMO1 genetic variants with type 2 diabetes in Tunisian Arabs.Journal of endocrinological investigation · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMost projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning.
methodsThe IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005.
resultsThe model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women).
conclusionsThis innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys.
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