ArticleMalaria journal2015
Malaria incidence from 2005-2013 and its associations with meteorological factors in Guangdong, China.
Article in Malaria journal, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 115 citations in OpenAlex.
- Differences of Rainfall-Malaria Associations in Lowland and Highland in Western Kenya.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Pooled it
- Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Short-Term Effects of Meteorological Factors on Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Incidence in Xinyang, China.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns and association with climate for malaria elimination in Lao PDR: a hierarchical modelling analysis with two-step Bayesian model selection.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- The malaria transmission in Anhui province China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
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- Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management.Biology · 2022Review
- Ten years of monitoring malaria trend and factors associated with malaria test positivity rates in Lower Moshi.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- Effect of temperature and its interactions with relative humidity and rainfall on malaria in a temperate city Suzhou, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Article
- Time-Varying Effects of Meteorological Variables on Malaria Epidemiology in the Context of Interrupted Control Efforts in the Amazon Rainforest, 2000-2017.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Disparities in Risks of Malaria Associated with Climatic Variability among Women, Children and Elderly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Article
- Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries.Iranian journal of public health · 2019Article
- Causality Detection Methods Applied to the Investigation of Malaria Epidemics.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2019Article
- Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.British medical bulletin · 2019Review
- Changing epidemiology and challenges of malaria in China towards elimination.Malaria journal · 2019Article
- [Climate-sensitive diseases in Brazil and the world: systematic reviewEnfermedades sensibles al clima en Brasil y el mundo: revisión sistemática].Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2018Review
- Association between malaria incidence and meteorological factors: a multi-location study in China, 2005-2012.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of tuberculosis incidence and its associated factors in mainland China.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe temporal variation of malaria incidence has been linked to meteorological factors in many studies, but key factors observed and corresponding effect estimates were not consistent. Furthermore, the potential effect modification by individual characteristics is not well documented. This study intends to examine the delayed effects of meteorological factors and the sub-population's susceptibility in Guangdong, China.
methodsThe Granger causality Wald test and Spearman correlation analysis were employed to select climatic variables influencing malaria. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of weekly temperature, duration of sunshine, and precipitation on the weekly number of malaria cases after controlling for other confounders. Stratified analyses were conducted to identify the sub-population's susceptibility to meteorological effects by malaria type, gender, and age group.
resultsAn incidence rate of 1.1 cases per 1,000,000 people was detected in Guangdong from 2005-2013. High temperature was associated with an observed increase in malaria incidence, with the effect lasting for four weeks and a maximum relative risk (RR) of 1.57 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-2.33) by comparing 30°C to the median temperature. The effect of sunshine duration peaked at lag five and the maximum RR was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.08-1.72) by comparing 24 hours/week to 0 hours/week. A J-shaped relationship was found between malaria incidence and precipitation with a threshold of 150 mm/week. Over the threshold, precipitation increased malaria incidence after four weeks with the effect lasting for 15 weeks, and the maximum RR of 1.55 (95% CI: 1.18-2.03) occurring at lag eight by comparing 225 mm/week to 0 mm/week. Plasmodium falciparum was more sensitive to temperature and precipitation than Plasmodium vivax. Females had a higher susceptibility to the effects of sunshine and precipitation, and children and the elderly were more sensitive to the change of temperature, sunshine duration, and precipitation.
conclusionTemperature, duration of sunshine and precipitation played important roles in malaria incidence with effects delayed and varied across lags. Climatic effects were distinct among sub-groups. This study provided helpful information for predicting malaria incidence and developing the future warning system.
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