ArticlePLoS computational biology2015
The serotype distribution among healthy carriers before vaccination is essential for predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive disease.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- What is driving the resurgence and persistence of vaccine-targeted pneumococcal serotypes?-Serotype 19F as the paradigm.PLoS pathogens · 2026Review
- Assessing the effect of social contact structure on the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global impact of 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis in all ages: The PSERENADE project.The Journal of infection · 2025Article
- Estimating pneumococcal carriage dynamics in adults living with HIV in a mature infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme in Malawi, a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2024Article
- Re-evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in 112 low-income and middle-income countries in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- The impact of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine introduction on invasive disease in Fiji.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Impact and effectiveness of a conjugate vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in Finland - a modelling approach.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- Article
- High residual carriage of vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malawi.Nature communications · 2020Observational
- Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Colonization and Invasive Disease in Cambodian Children.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Differences in the Impact of Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement in Individuals With and Without Underlying Medical Conditions.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Article
- Prevention of Pneumococcal Infections in Adults Using Conjugate Vaccines: No Easy Answers.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Article
- Capturing multiple-type interactions into practical predictors of type replacement following human papillomavirus vaccination.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Effect and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a global modelling analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2019Article
- Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Carriage in Nigeria: a two-site, population-based survey.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
- Article
- Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Interim results of an ecological experiment - Conjugate vaccination against the pneumococcus and serotype replacement.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2016Review
- Pneumococcal serotype evolution in Western Europe.BMC infectious diseases · 2015Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have substantially reduced morbidity and mortality of pneumococcal disease. The impact of the 7-valent PCV on all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children was reported to vary between high-income countries. We investigate the ability to predict this heterogeneity from pre-vaccination data. We propose a parsimonious model that predicts the impact of PCVs from the odds of vaccine serotype (VT) among carriers and IPD cases in the pre-PCV period, assuming that VT are eliminated in a mature PCV programme, that full serotype replacement occurs in carriage and that invasiveness of the NVT group is unchanged. We test model performance against the reported impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD in high-income countries from a recent meta-analysis. The odds of pre-PCV7 VT IPD, PCV schedule, PCV coverage and whether a catch up campaign was used for introduction was gathered from the same analysis. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis to obtain the odds of pre-PCV7 VT carriage in the respective settings. The model predicted the reported impact on childhood IPD of mature PCV programmes; the ratio of predicted and observed incidence risk ratios was close to 1 in all settings. In the high income settings studied differences in schedule, coverage, and catch up campaigns were not associated with the observed heterogeneity in impact of PCV7 on childhood all-serotype IPD. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT IPD alone also had limited predictive value. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT carriage and IPD are the main determinants for the impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD and can be combined in a simple model to provide predictions of the vaccine preventable burden of IPD.
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