ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2015
Estimates of the demand for mechanical ventilation in the United States during an influenza pandemic.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Mechanical Ventilator Acquisition Strategy in a Large Private Tertiary Medical Center Using Monte Carlo Simulation.Acta medica Philippina · 2025Article
- Spatial networks of China's specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative medical device firms based on parent-subsidiary contacts: implications for regional health policy.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Challenges of providing of special care services in hospitals during emergencies and disasters: a scoping review.BMC emergency medicine · 2024Article
- Flu-IV score: a predictive tool for assessing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with influenza-related pneumonia.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2022Article
- ICU Resource Limitations During Peak Seasonal Influenza: Results of a 2018 National Feasibility Study.Critical care explorations · 2022Article
- Article
- Article
- Impact of 3D printed medical equipment on the management of the Covid19 pandemic.The International journal of health planning and management · 2020Review
- A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19.Naval research logistics · 2020Article
- A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2020Article
- Article
- Factors affecting hospital response in biological disasters: A qualitative study.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2020Article
- A review of open source ventilators for COVID-19 and future pandemics.F1000Research · 2020Review
- Intensive Care Unit Preparedness During Pandemics and Other Biological Threats.Critical care clinics · 2019Review
- Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.Emerging infectious diseases · 2017Article
- To counteract or to clear high-mobility group box-1 protein in influenza A (H1N1) infection? That may become the question.Critical care (London, England) · 2015Article
- Standardizing scenarios to assess the need to respond to an influenza pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Review
- Strategies to Inform Allocation of Stockpiled Ventilators to Healthcare Facilities During a Pandemic.Health securityArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
An outbreak in China in April 2013 of human illnesses due to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus provided reason for US public health officials to revisit existing national pandemic response plans. We built a spreadsheet model to examine the potential demand for invasive mechanical ventilation (excluding "rescue therapy" ventilation). We considered scenarios of either 20% or 30% gross influenza clinical attack rate (CAR), with a "low severity" scenario with case fatality rates (CFR) of 0.05%-0.1%, or a "high severity" scenario (CFR: 0.25%-0.5%). We used rates-of-influenza-related illness to calculate the numbers of potential clinical cases, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units, and need for mechanical ventilation. We assumed 10 days ventilator use per ventilated patient, 13% of total ventilator demand will occur at peak, and a 33.7% weighted average mortality risk while on a ventilator. At peak, for a 20% CAR, low severity scenario, an additional 7000 to 11,000 ventilators will be needed, averting a pandemic total of 35,000 to 55,000 deaths. A 30% CAR, high severity scenario, will need approximately 35,000 to 60,500 additional ventilators, averting a pandemic total 178,000 to 308,000 deaths. Estimates of deaths averted may not be realized because successful ventilation also depends on sufficient numbers of suitably trained staff, needed supplies (eg, drugs, reliable oxygen sources, suction apparatus, circuits, and monitoring equipment) and timely ability to match access to ventilators with critically ill cases. There is a clear challenge to plan and prepare to meet demands for mechanical ventilators for a future severe pandemic.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.