ArticlePLoS computational biology2015
Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- A genomic-led strategy to anticipate drug safety effects.PLoS genetics · 2026Article
- Temporal and age-structured analysis of Mpox spread in the 2022 Global outbreak: data-assimilation insights for epidemic control.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- "Mpox in MSM: Tackling stigma, minimizing risk factors, exploring pathogenesis, and treatment approaches".Biomedical journal · 2025Review
- The global H5N1 influenza panzootic in mammals.Nature · 2025Review
- A beta-Poisson model for infectious disease transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Monkeypox in Latin America and the Caribbean: assessment of the first 100 days of the 2022 outbreak.Pathogens and global health · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling of mpox: A scoping review.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Article
- Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Probabilistic reconstruction of measles transmission clusters from routinely collected surveillance data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Controlling emerging zoonoses at the animal-human interface.One health outlook · 2020Article
- Sub- or supercritical transmissibilities in a finite disease outbreak: Symmetry in outbreak properties of a disease conditioned on extinction.Journal of theoretical biology · 2019Article
- Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2019Article
- A primer on the use of probability generating functions in infectious disease modeling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia.Saudi journal of biological sciences · 2017Article
- Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2017Review
- The global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome: an analysis fusing traditional epidemiological tracing and molecular phylodynamics.Global health research and policy · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.