Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25840900›Full record

ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2015

Computing Expected Value of Partial Sample Information from Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Linear Regression Metamodeling.

Hawre Jalal, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Karen M Kuntz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Microsimulation Estimates of Decision Uncertainty and Value of Information Are Biased but Consistent.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025
    Article
  3. Making Drug Approval Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Cumulative Evidence versus Value of Information.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Closed-Form Solution of the Unit Normal Loss Integral in 2 Dimensions, with Application in Value-of-Information Analysis.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023
    Article
  6. Metamodeling for Policy Simulations with Multivariate Outcomes.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  7. Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2022
    Article
  8. Calculating Expected Value of Sample Information Adjusting for Imperfect Implementation.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  9. Personalization of Medical Treatment Decisions: Simplifying Complex Models while Maintaining Patient Health Outcomes.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  10. Expected Value of Sample Information to Guide the Design of Group Sequential Clinical Trials.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  11. Multilevel and Quasi Monte Carlo Methods for the Calculation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Comparison of Decision Modeling Approaches for Health Technology and Policy Evaluation.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2021
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2020
    Article
  16. Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Practical Guidance and Recommendations for Four Model-Based Methods.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2020
    Article
  17. Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from 3 Case Studies.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. A Gaussian Approximation Approach for Value of Information Analysis.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Hawre JalalCenter for Innovation to Implementation, VA Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California (HJ)
Jeremy D Goldhaber-FiebertCenter for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care & Outcomes Research, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California (HJ, JDGF)
Karen M KuntzDivision of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (KMK)

Funding

Cost-effective chronic disease prevention in developing countriesK01AG037593 · NIA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI GOLDHABER-FIEBERT, JEREMY DAVID · 2011 to 2015
$637k
NIA NIH HHS K01 AG037593
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Decision makers often desire both guidance on the most cost-effective interventions given current knowledge and also the value of collecting additional information to improve the decisions made (i.e., from value of information [VOI] analysis). Unfortunately, VOI analysis remains underused due to the conceptual, mathematical, and computational challenges of implementing Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches in models of sufficient complexity for real-world decision making. In this study, we propose a novel practical approach for conducting VOI analysis using a combination of probabilistic sensitivity analysis, linear regression metamodeling, and unit normal loss integral function--a parametric approach to VOI analysis. We adopt a linear approximation and leverage a fundamental assumption of VOI analysis, which requires that all sources of prior uncertainties be accurately specified. We provide examples of the approach and show that the assumptions we make do not induce substantial bias but greatly reduce the computational time needed to perform VOI analysis. Our approach avoids the need to analytically solve or approximate joint Bayesian updating, requires only one set of probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations, and can be applied in models with correlated input parameters.

Indexed as

Linear ModelsAlgorithmsComputer SimulationCost-Benefit AnalysisDecision TreesHumansMarkov ChainsProbabilityBayesian statistical methodscost-benefit analysisprobabilistic sensitivity analysissimulation methodsvalue of information

Identifiers

PMID25840900
PMCPMC4978941

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.