Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25837819›Full record

ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2015

Improving the quality of biomarker discovery research: the right samples and enough of them.

Margaret S Pepe, Christopher I Li, Ziding Feng

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05876676 (Rapid Diagnostic Centre Biomarker Study), which is not on this map. Cited by 37 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05876676 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Rapid Diagnostic Centre Biomarker Study

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorRoyal Marsden NHS Foundation TrustRan2023 to 2032Enrolled1,000ConditionsCancer
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Biomarkers of Chronic Pancreatitis: A systematic literature review.Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.] · 2021
    Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
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  10. Review
  11. Screening for oropharyngeal cancer: the time is now.Expert review of molecular diagnostics · 2025
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Upgrading of Grade Group 1 Prostate Cancer at Prostatectomy: Germline Risk Factors in a Prospective Cohort.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
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  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. MS-Based Proteomics of Body Fluids: The End of the Beginning.Molecular & cellular proteomics : MCP · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Margaret S PepeBiostatitistics and Biomathematics Program, Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington. mspepe@u.washington.edu.
Christopher I LiTranslational Research Program, Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
Ziding FengDivision of Quantitative Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.

Funding

Tumor Evolution and Metastasis ProgramP30CA016672 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Scott Kopetz · 1985 to 2026
$290.8M
The Early Detection Research Network: Data Management and Coordinating CenterU24CA086368 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI RUTH D ETZIONI, Ziding Feng · 2010 to 2026
$75.7M
Fred Hutchinson Breast Cancer Clinical Validation CenterU01CA152637 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Christopher I Li, Savannah Corrina Partridge · 2010 to 2026
$14.6M
Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and BiomarkersR01GM054438 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI PEPE, MARGARET S. · 1996 to 2015
$4.7M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016672NCI NIH HHS U01 CA152637NCI NIH HHS U24 CA086368NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM054438
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBiomarker discovery research has yielded few biomarkers that validate for clinical use. A contributing factor may be poor study designs.

methodsThe goal in discovery research is to identify a subset of potentially useful markers from a large set of candidates assayed on case and control samples. We recommend the PRoBE design for selecting samples. We propose sample size calculations that require specifying: (i) a definition for biomarker performance; (ii) the proportion of useful markers the study should identify (Discovery Power); and (iii) the tolerable number of useless markers amongst those identified (False Leads Expected, FLE).

resultsWe apply the methodology to a study of 9,000 candidate biomarkers for risk of colon cancer recurrence where a useful biomarker has positive predictive value ≥ 30%. We find that 40 patients with recurrence and 160 without recurrence suffice to filter out 98% of useless markers (2% FLE) while identifying 95% of useful biomarkers (95% Discovery Power). Alternative methods for sample size calculation required more assumptions.

conclusionsBiomarker discovery research should utilize quality biospecimen repositories and include sample sizes that enable markers meeting prespecified performance characteristics for well-defined clinical applications to be identified. IMPACT: The scientific rigor of discovery research should be improved.

Indexed as

Research DesignSample SizeBiomarkers, TumorBiomedical ResearchCohort StudiesColonic NeoplasmsHumansNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalPrognosisBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID25837819
PMCPMC4452419

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.