ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2015
A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling and Characterizing the Growth of the Texas-New Mexico Measles Outbreak of 2025.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Article
- A century of weekly notifiable disease incidence data by province in Canada.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- The probability of epidemic burnout in the stochastic SIR model with vital dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.Theoretical ecology · 2021Article
- How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries.PLoS biology · 2020Article
- Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: measles in London as a case study.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Article
- On the Entropy of Events under Eventually Global Inflated or Deflated Probability Constraints. Application to the Supervision of Epidemic Models under Vaccination Controls.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.PLoS computational biology · 2019Article
- Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
- Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.BMC medicine · 2017Article
- The cohort effect in childhood disease dynamics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
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