The potential spread of severe footrot in Norway if no elimination programme had been initiated: a simulation model.

When severe footrot was detected in Norway in 2008, a surveillance programme was initiated and followed by an elimination programme. By 2013 the disease had spread to two of 19 counties and a total of 119 (1%) sheep flocks had been diagnosed with severe footrot. A simulation model was developed to estimate the potential spread of severe footrot in Norway and to estimate the relative importance of the different spreading routes. The model parameters were based on the rate of spread of the first 38 diagnosed cases and the management and climatic factors particular for Norway. The model showed that by 2013, severe footrot would have spread to six counties and infected 16% of the sheep flocks if no elimination programme had been initiated. If this is compared with the 1% of flocks that were diagnosed in Norway by 2013, there seems to be a large effect of the implemented footrot elimination programme. By 2035, it was estimated that severe footrot would have spread to 16 counties and 64% of the sheep flocks. Such an extensive spread would probably impose a large negative impact on the sheep industry and welfare of the sheep. The most effective way to curb the spread of severe footrot was by decreasing the within county infection rate. This could be achieved by decreasing the contact between flocks or by decreasing the environmental load of D. nodosus, for example by footbathing sheep, culling diseased sheep or eliminating severe footrot in the flock.