← Insulin × cardiovascular events

SynthesisCirculation2015

Risk of Stroke in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Without Atrial Fibrillation: Analysis of the Controlled Rosuvastatin in Multinational Trial Heart Failure (CORONA) and the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Insufficienza Cardiaca-Heart Failure (GISSI-HF) Trials.

Azmil H Abdul-Rahim et al.PubMed ↗Publisher ↗

  • Age (per 10 years)looks bad hereMore stroke.Correlation only, not a test of it.
  • New York Heart Association class III/IVlooks bad hereMore stroke.Correlation only, not a test of it.
  • Diabetes mellitus treated with insulinlooks bad hereMore stroke.Correlation only, not a test of it.
  • Body mass index (per 5 kg/m(2) up to 30)looks good hereFewer stroke.Correlation only, not a test of it.

What moved togetherboth groups pooled, not the treatment’s effect

Correlation, not cause

Age (per 10 years) went with more stroke

+34%+18% to +63%

age (per 10 years) vs reference age, in patients without AF

5 in 100 instead of 3

Bigger than 6 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.18–1.63

Correlation, not cause

New York Heart Association class III/IV went with more stroke

1.6×1.2× to 2.1×

New York Heart Association class III/IV vs New York Heart Association class II, in patients without AF

Bigger than 8 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.21–2.12

Correlation, not cause

Diabetes mellitus treated with insulin went with more stroke

1.9×1.2× to 2.9×

diabetes mellitus treated with insulin vs no diabetes or non-insulin treated diabetes, in patients without AF

Bigger than 9 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.22–2.88

+2 more in the walkthrough ↓

Who was studied, and how

2,632people with arrhythmia, in this paper

Already taking age (per 10 years), or nottheir own situation, not assigned

on age (per 10 years)
reference age

Age (per 10 years) went with more stroke+34%

correlation, not a test

Already taking New York Heart Association class III/IV, or nottheir own situation, not assigned

on New York Heart Association class III/IV
New York Heart Association class II

New York Heart Association class III/IV went with more stroke1.6×

correlation, not a test

the abstract, start to end

… by χ(2) value): age (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.63 per 10 years), New York Heart Association class (1.60, 1.21-2.12 class III/IV versus II), diabetes mellitus treated with insulin (1.87, 1.22-2.88), body mass index (0.74, 0.60-0.91 per 5 kg/m(2) up to 30), and previous stroke (1.81, 1.19-2.74).

← favours treatmentfavours comparator →
could be chance
Strokeage (per 10 years) vs reference age, in patients without AF
HR 1.341.18–1.63
StrokeNew York Heart Association class III/IV vs New York Heart Association class II, in patients without AF
HR 1.601.21–2.12
Strokediabetes mellitus treated with insulin vs no diabetes or non-insulin treated diabetes, in patients without AF
HR 1.871.22–2.88
Strokebody mass index (per 5 kg/m(2) up to 30) vs reference BMI, in patients without AF
HR 0.740.60–0.91
Strokeprevious stroke vs no previous stroke, in patients without AF
HR 1.811.19–2.74
InsulinCardiovascular events
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The trial

NCT04696120phase 2200 enrolled2021
Full record →Abstract, authors, funding and every citing paper · PMID 25810334