Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25809313›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2015

A Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty due to missing binary outcome data in pairwise meta-analysis.

N L Turner, S Dias, A E Ades, N J Welton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. BMJ open · 2019
    Pooled it
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  9. Dealing with missing outcome data in meta-analysis.Research synthesis methods · 2020
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

N L TurnerSchool of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, U.K.
S Dias
A E Ades
N J Welton

Funding

Medical Research Council G0802413Medical Research Council MC_U145079307Medical Research Council MR/K025643/1Medical Research Council MR/M005232/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Missing outcome data are a common threat to the validity of the results from randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which, if not analysed appropriately, can lead to misleading treatment effect estimates. Studies with missing outcome data also threaten the validity of any meta-analysis that includes them. A conceptually simple Bayesian framework is proposed, to account for uncertainty due to missing binary outcome data in meta-analysis. A pattern-mixture model is fitted, which allows the incorporation of prior information on a parameter describing the missingness mechanism. We describe several alternative parameterisations, with the simplest being a prior on the probability of an event in the missing individuals. We describe a series of structural assumptions that can be made concerning the missingness parameters. We use some artificial data scenarios to demonstrate the ability of the model to produce a bias-adjusted estimate of treatment effect that accounts for uncertainty. A meta-analysis of haloperidol versus placebo for schizophrenia is used to illustrate the model. We end with a discussion of elicitation of priors, issues with poor reporting and potential extensions of the framework. Our framework allows one to make the best use of evidence produced from RCTs with missing outcome data in a meta-analysis, accounts for any uncertainty induced by missing data and fits easily into a wider evidence synthesis framework for medical decision making.

Indexed as

Data Interpretation, StatisticalMeta-Analysis as TopicReview Literature as TopicUncertaintyAntipsychotic AgentsBayes TheoremBiasDose-Response Relationship, DrugHaloperidolHumansModels, StatisticalOutcome Assessment, Health CareRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicReproducibility of ResultsSchizophreniaAntipsychotic AgentsHaloperidolBayesianbiasdecision makingmeta-analysismissing datapattern-mixture model

Identifiers

PMID25809313
PMCPMC5054891

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.