Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25792457›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals.

Thomas P Van Boeckel, Charles Brower, Marius Gilbert, Bryan T Grenfell, Simon A Levin, Timothy P Robinson, Aude Teillant, Ramanan Laxminarayan

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1,423 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1,423citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
87.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1,423 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 3,743 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Prevalence of antimicrobial-resistantOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Review
  20. Review

1,363 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Thomas P Van BoeckelDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; thomas.van.boeckel@gmail.com slevin@princeton.edu ramanan@cddep.org.
Charles BrowerCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, Washington, DC 20036;
Marius GilbertUniversite Libre de Bruxelles, B1050 Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, B1000 Brussels, Belgium;
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ 08544; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892;
Simon A LevinDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, 10405 Stockholm, Sweden; Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036; thomas.van.boeckel@gmail.com slevin@princeton.edu ramanan@cddep.org.
Timothy P RobinsonInternational Livestock Research Institute, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya; and.
Aude TeillantDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Ramanan LaxminarayanCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, Washington, DC 20036; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ 08544; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi 110070, India thomas.van.boeckel@gmail.com slevin@princeton.edu ramanan@cddep.org.
Princeton University · USCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy · USInternational Livestock Research Institute · KENational Institutes of Health · USUniversité Libre de Bruxelles · BE

Funding

Scientific and Technical Computing CoreP2CHD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI SALGANIK, MATTHEW J. · 2014 to 2018
$2.0M
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/L019019/1Medical Research Council G1100783NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD047879
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsAnimalsAnti-Infective AgentsBacteriaBacterial InfectionsBayes TheoremBrazilChinaDrug Resistance, MicrobialGeographyHumansIndiaLivestockModels, StatisticalPoultryRussiaAnti-Infective Agentsantimicrobialsdrug resistancelinear regressionlivestockmapping

Identifiers

PMID25792457
PMCPMC4426470
OpenAlexW2038752330

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.