Evidence map›Paper›PMID 25788097›Full record

ArticleNature2015

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

R J W Brienen, O L Phillips, T R Feldpausch, E Gloor, T R Baker, J Lloyd, G Lopez-Gonzalez, A Monteagudo-Mendoza, Y Malhi, S L Lewis and 82 more

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 201 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
201citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

201 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Adoption of community monitoring improves common pool resource management across contexts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
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  13. Deforestation-focused policies do not reduce degradation in the Brazilian Amazon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  14. Unprecedented Amazonian rainforests damage during the 2023-2024 droughts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  20. Article

141 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

92 authors.

R J W BrienenSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
O L PhillipsSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
T R Feldpausch1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK.
E GloorSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
T R BakerSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
J Lloyd1] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK. [2] School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, 4870 Queenland, Australia.
G Lopez-GonzalezSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
A Monteagudo-MendozaJardín Botánico de Missouri, Prolongacion Bolognesi Mz.e, Lote 6, Oxapampa, Pasco, Peru.
Y MalhiEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QK, UK.
S L Lewis1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Department of Geography, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
R Vásquez MartinezJardín Botánico de Missouri, Prolongacion Bolognesi Mz.e, Lote 6, Oxapampa, Pasco, Peru.
M AlexiadesSchool of Anthropology and Conservation, Marlowe Building, University of Kent, Canterbury CT1 3EH, UK.
E Álvarez DávilaServicios Ecosistemicos y Cambio Climático, Jardín Botánico de Medellín, Calle 73 no. 51 D-14, C.P. 050010, Medellín, Colombia.
P Alvarez-LoayzaCenter for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Box 90381, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA.
A AndradeBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragment Project (INPA &STRI), C.P. 478, Manaus AM 69011-970, Brazil.
L E O C Aragão1] Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK. [2] National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. Dos Astronautas, 1758, São José dos Campos, São Paulo 12227-010, Brazil.
A Araujo-MurakamiMuseo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Casilla 2489, Av. Irala 565, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
E J M M AretsAlterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
L ArroyoMuseo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Casilla 2489, Av. Irala 565, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
G A Aymard CUNELLEZ-Guanare, Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario (PORT), Mesa de Cavacas, Estado Portuguesa, 3350 Venezuela.
O S BánkiBiodiversiteit en Ecosysteem Dynamica, University of Amsterdam, Postbus 94248, 1090 GE Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
C Baraloto1] Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UMR EcoFoG, Campus Agronomique, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana. [2] International Center for Tropical Botany, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, Florida 33199, USA.
J BarrosoUniversidade Federal do Acre, Campus de Cruzeiro do Sul, Rio Branco, Brazil.
D BonalINRA, UMR 1137 ''Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestiere'' 54280 Champenoux, France.
R G A BootSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
J L C CamargoBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragment Project (INPA &STRI), C.P. 478, Manaus AM 69011-970, Brazil.
C V CastilhoEmbrapa Roraima, Caixa Postal 133, Boa Vista, RR, CEP 69301-970, Brazil.
V ChamaUniversidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Av. de la Cultura N° 733, Cusco, Peru.
K J Chao1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] International Master Program of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan.
J ChaveUniversité Paul Sabatier CNRS, UMR 5174 Evolution et Diversité Biologique, Bâtiment 4R1, 31062 Toulouse, France.
J A ComiskeyNortheast Region Inventory and Monitoring Program, National Park Service, 120 Chatham Lane, Fredericksburg, Virginia 22405, USA.
F Cornejo ValverdeAndes to Amazon Biodiversity Program, Puerto Maldonado, Madre de Dios, Peru.
L da CostaUniversidade Federal do Para, Centro de Geociencias, Belem, CEP 66017-970 Para, Brazil.
E A de OliveiraUniversidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil.
A Di FioreDepartment of Anthropology, University of Texas at Austin, SAC Room 5.150, 2201 Speedway Stop C3200, Austin, Texas 78712, USA.
T L ErwinDepartment of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution, PO Box 37012, MRC 187, Washington DC 20013-7012, USA.
S FausetSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
M ForsthoferUniversidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil.
D R GalbraithSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
E S GrahameSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
N GrootSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
B HéraultCirad, UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Campus Agronomique, 97310 Kourou, French Guiana.
N HiguchiBiological Dynamics of Forest Fragment Project (INPA &STRI), C.P. 478, Manaus AM 69011-970, Brazil.
E N Honorio Coronado1] School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. [2] Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana, Av. A. José Quiñones km 2.5, Iquitos, Peru.
H KeelingSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
T J KilleenWorld Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street NW, Washington DC 20037, USA.
W F LauranceCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia.
S LauranceCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia.
J LiconaInstituto Boliviano de Investigación Forestal, C.P. 6201, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
W E MagnussenNational Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), C.P. 478, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69011-970, Brazil.
B S MarimonUniversidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil.
B H Marimon-JuniorUniversidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil.
C Mendoza1] FOMABO, Manejo Forestal en las Tierras Tropicales de Bolivia, Sacta, Bolivia. [2] Escuela de Ciencias Forestales (ESFOR), Universidad Mayor de San Simón (UMSS), Sacta, Bolivia.
D A NeillUniversidad Estatal Amazónica, Facultad de Ingeniería Ambiental, Paso lateral km 2 1/2 via Napo, Puyo, Pastaza, Ecuador.
E M NogueiraNational Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), C.P. 2223, 69080-971, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
P NúñezUniversidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Av. de la Cultura N° 733, Cusco, Peru.
N C Pallqui CamachoUniversidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Av. de la Cultura N° 733, Cusco, Peru.
A ParadaMuseo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Casilla 2489, Av. Irala 565, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
G Pardo-MolinaUniversidad Autonoma del Beni, Campus Universitario, Av. Ejército Nacional, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia.
J PeacockSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
M Peña-Claros1] Instituto Boliviano de Investigación Forestal, C.P. 6201, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. [2] Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
G C PickavanceSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
N C A Pitman1] Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Box 90381, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA. [2] The Field Museum, 1400 South Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60605-2496, USA.
L PoorterForest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
A PrietoUniversidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
C A QuesadaNational Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA), C.P. 2223, 69080-971, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
F RamírezUniversidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
H Ramírez-AnguloInstituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal (INDEFOR), Universidad de Los Andes, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Conjunto Forestal, C.P. 5101, Mérida, Venezuela.
Z RestrepoServicios Ecosistemicos y Cambio Climático, Jardín Botánico de Medellín, Calle 73 no. 51 D-14, C.P. 050010, Medellín, Colombia.
A RoopsindIwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, 77 High Street Kingston, Georgetown, Guyana.
A RudasSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
R P SalomãoMuseu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Av. Magalhães Barata, 376 - São Braz, CEP 66040-170, Belém PA, Brazil.
M SchwarzSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
N SilvaUFRA, Av. Presidente Tancredo Neves 2501, CEP 66.077-901, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
J E Silva-EspejoUniversidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Av. de la Cultura N° 733, Cusco, Peru.
M SilveiraMuseu Universitário, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco AC 69910-900, Brazil.
J StroppEuropean Commission - DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Via Enrico Fermi 274, 21010 Ispra, Italy.
J TalbotSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
H ter Steege1] Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands. [2] Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Utrecht University, PO Box 80084, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands.
J Teran-AguilarMuseo de Historia Natural Alcide D'Orbigny, Av. Potosi no 1458, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
J TerborghCenter for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Box 90381, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA.
R Thomas-CaesarUFRA, Av. Presidente Tancredo Neves 2501, CEP 66.077-901, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
M ToledoInstituto Boliviano de Investigación Forestal, C.P. 6201, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
M Torello-Raventos1] School of Earth and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4870, Australia. [2] Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4878, Australia.
R K UmetsuUniversidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Campus de Nova Xavantina, Caixa Postal 08, CEP 78.690-000, Nova Xavantina MT, Brazil.
G M F van der Heijden1] Northumbria University, School of Geography, Ellison Place, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle NE1 8ST, UK. [2] University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202, USA. [3] Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado Postal 0843-03092, Panamá, Republic of Panama.
P van der HoutVan der Hout Forestry Consulting, Jan Trooststraat 6, 3078 HP Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
I C Guimarães VieiraMuseu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Av. Magalhães Barata, 376 - São Braz, CEP 66040-170, Belém PA, Brazil.
S A VieiraUniversidade Estadual de Campinas, NEPAM, Rua dos Flamboyants, 155- Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz, Campinas, CEP 13083-867, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
E VilanovaInstituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal (INDEFOR), Universidad de Los Andes, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Conjunto Forestal, C.P. 5101, Mérida, Venezuela.
V A Vos1] Universidad Autonoma del Beni, Campus Universitario, Av. Ejército Nacional, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia. [2] Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado, regional Norte Amazónico, C/ Nicanor Gonzalo Salvatierra N° 362, Casilla 16, Riberalta, Bolivia.
R J ZagtTropenbos International, PO Box 232, 6700 AE Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Indexed as

Carbon SequestrationRainforestAtmosphereBiomassBrazilCarbonCarbon DioxidePlant StemsTreesTropical ClimateWoodCarbonCarbon Dioxide

Identifiers

PMID25788097

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.