ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2015
Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.
Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Applying a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to examine excess county-level cardiovascular disease death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- US County-Level Variation in Preterm Birth Rates, 2007-2019.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- Urban-Rural Disparities in Deaths of Despair: A County-Level Analysis 2004-2016 in the U.S.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Observational
- A Dynamic Visualization Tool of Local Trends in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality in the United States.Preventing chronic disease · 2022Article
- The where of when: Geographic variation in the timing of recent increases in US county-level heart disease death rates.Annals of epidemiology · 2022Article
- County-Level Trends in Hypertension-Related Cardiovascular Disease Mortality-United States, 2000 to 2019.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2022Article
- County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) · 2021Article
- Unequal Local Progress Towards Healthy People 2020 Objectives for Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality.Stroke · 2021Article
- Changing Spatiotemporal Trends in County-Level Heart Failure Death Rates in the United States, 1999 to 2018.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Article
- Progress Toward Achieving National Targets for Reducing Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality: A County-Level Perspective.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Article
- Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends by sex and population group in South Africa: 2002-2014.BMC cancer · 2021Article
- Metropolitan age-specific mortality trends at borough and neighborhood level: The case of Mexico City.PloS one · 2021Article
- Historic and recent trends in county-level coronary heart disease death rates by race, gender, and age group, United States, 1979-2017.PloS one · 2020Article
- Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.Stroke · 2019Article
- Identifying County-Level All-Cause Mortality Rate Trajectories and Their Spatial Distribution Across the United States.Preventing chronic disease · 2019Article
- Changing rate orders of race-gender heart disease death rates: An exploration of county-level race-gender disparities.SSM - population health · 2019Article
- Before the here and now: What we can learn from variation in spatiotemporal patterns of changing heart disease mortality by age group, time period, and birth cohort.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2018Article
- Widespread recent increases in county-level heart disease mortality across age groups.Annals of epidemiology · 2017Article
- Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010.Circulation · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeTo demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010.
methodsWe applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty.
resultsThe average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods.
conclusionsThe similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates.
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